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Do fiscal multipliers depend on fiscal positions?

Author

Listed:
  • Raju Huidrom
  • M. Ayhan Kose
  • Jamus J. Lim
  • Franziska L. Ohnsorge
Abstract
This paper analyzes the relationship between fiscal multipliers and fiscal positions of governments using an Interactive Panel Vector Auto Regression model and a large dataset of advanced and developing economies. Our methodology permits us to trace the endogenous relationship between fiscal multipliers and fiscal positions while maintaining enough degrees of freedom to draw sharp inferences. We report three major results. First, the fiscal multipliers depend on fiscal positions: the multipliers tend to be larger when fiscal positions are strong (i.e. when government debt and deficits are low) than weak. For instance, the long run multiplier can be as large as unity when fiscal position is strong, while it can be negative when the fiscal position is weak. Second, these effects are separate and distinct from the impact of the business cycle on the fiscal multiplier. Third, the state-dependent effects of the fiscal position on multipliers is attributable to two factors: an interest rate channel through which higher borrowing costs, due to investors'increased perception of credit risks when stimulus is implemented from a weak initial fiscal position, crowd out private investment; and, a Ricardian channel through which households reduce consumption in anticipation of future fiscal adjustments.

Suggested Citation

  • Raju Huidrom & M. Ayhan Kose & Jamus J. Lim & Franziska L. Ohnsorge, 2016. "Do fiscal multipliers depend on fiscal positions?," CAMA Working Papers 2016-35, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-35
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    Cited by:

    1. Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers in South Africa: The importance of financial sector dynamics," WIDER Working Paper Series 006, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Makrelov, Konstantin & Arndt, Channing & Davies, Rob & Harris, Laurence, 2020. "Balance sheet changes and the impact of financial sector risk-taking on fiscal multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 322-343.
    3. Cem Çebi & K.Azim Özdemir, 2021. "Cyclical variation of the fiscal multiplier in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(2), pages 495-509, January.
    4. Mindaugas Butkus & Diana Cibulskiene & Lina Garsviene & Janina Seputiene, 2021. "Empirical Evidence on Factors Conditioning the Turning Point of the Public Debt–Growth Relationship," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Ohnsorge, Franziska & Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2020. "Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison," CEPR Discussion Papers 14439, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Fotiou, Alexandra & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2020. "The fiscal state-dependent effects of capital income tax cuts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Raju Huidrom & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska L. Ohnsorge, 2018. "Challenges of Fiscal Policy in Emerging and Developing Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(9), pages 1927-1945, July.
    8. Charles, Sébastien, 2019. "Le multiplicateur budgétaire endogène au cycle dans un modèle macroéconomique post-keynésien [The state-dependent fiscal Multiplier in a Post-Keynesian Macroeconomic Model]," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 26.
    9. Gábor P. Kiss, 2020. "Aggregate Fiscal Stabilisation Policy: Panacea or Scapegoat?," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(2), pages 55-87.
    10. Jair N. Ojeda‐Joya & Oscar E. Guzman, 2019. "The Size Of Fiscal Multipliers And The Stance Of Monetary Policy In Developing Economies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 621-640, October.
    11. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Thomas Philippon & Francisco Roldán, 2018. "On the Optimal Speed of Sovereign Deleveraging with Precautionary Savings," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(2), pages 375-413, June.
    13. Gunter, Samara & Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2021. "Non-linear effects of tax changes on output: The role of the initial level of taxation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Portugal: Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2011 Extended Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Authorities Views," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/302, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Maria Elkhdari & Moez Souissi & Mr. Andrew Jewell, 2018. "Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria," IMF Working Papers 2018/124, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Hjelm, Göran & Stockhammar, Pär, 2016. "Short Run Effects of Fiscal Policy on GDP and Employment: Swedish Evidence," Working Papers 147, National Institute of Economic Research.
    17. Fotiou, Alexandra, 2022. "Non-linearities in fiscal policy: The role of debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    18. Beck-Friis, Peder & Willems, Tim, 2017. "Dissecting fiscal multipliers under the fiscal theory of the price level," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 62-83.
    19. World Bank, 2018. "South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2018," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 30454.
    20. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2021. "Fiscal policy and economic activity in South Asia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 340-358, February.
    21. Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers in South Africa: The importance of financial sector dynamics," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-6, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    22. Jarmila Botev & Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation: What Are the Breakeven Fiscal Multipliers?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(3), pages 295-316.
    23. Prayudhi Azwar & Rod Tyers, 2016. "Post-GFC external shocks and Indonesian economic performance," CAMA Working Papers 2016-58, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    24. World Bank, "undated". "South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2018," World Bank Publications - Reports 30454, The World Bank Group.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multipliers; fiscal position; state-dependency; Ricardian channel; interest rate channel; business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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