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Fiscal Multipliers and Beyond

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Warmedinger

    (European Central Bank)

  • Cristina Checherita-Westphal

    (European Central Bank)

  • Pablo Hernández de Cos

    (Banco de España)

Abstract
This paper seeks to link the debate surrounding short-term fiscal multipliers with the medium and longer-term impact of fiscal consolidation on public debt sustainability. A literature review and empirical findings for state-dependent multipliers confirm that there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the size of the short-term multiplier. Notably, multipliers may be larger in deep recessions or financial crises, but the negative impact of fiscal consolidation is mitigated when public finances are weak. Using a stylised framework and a range of plausible values for the fiscal multiplier, simulations suggest that an increase in the debt ratio following episodes of fiscal consolidation is likely to be short-lived. Even in a macroeconomic context in which multipliers are high, a frontloaded fiscal consolidation reduces the total consolidation effort and implies a faster stabilisation of the debt ratio. In general, backloading is subject to higher implementation risks, most notably in the light of political economy considerations. Overall, when determining the fiscal adjustment path, both the short-term costs and the longer-term benefits need to be taken into account. Particular attention should be paid to the composition of consolidation packages, with well-designed adjustments likely to imply a faster stabilisation of the debt ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Warmedinger & Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers and Beyond," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 139-168, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2015:v:215:i:4:p:139-168
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    4. J. Boeckx & M. Deroose, 2016. "Monetary and fiscal policies in the euro area : independent but nevertheless connected," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 7-25, september.
    5. Jiménez, Alvaro & Rodríguez, Gabriel & Ataurima Arellano, Miguel, 2023. "Time-varying impact of fiscal shocks over GDP growth in Peru: An empirical application using hybrid TVP-VAR-SV models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 314-332.
    6. Pablo Burriel & Javier J. Pérez & Ivan Kataryniuk, 2023. "Computing the EU’s SURE Interest Savings with an Extended Debt Sustainability Analysis Tool," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 245(2), pages 157-178, June.
    7. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Euro Area Lessons Learned from Fiscal Consolidation," Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, ASERS Publishing, vol. 7(8), pages 2236-2276.
    8. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Klemm, Alexander & Viefers, Paul, 2016. "Governments’ payment discipline: The macroeconomic impact of public payment delays and arrears," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 147-165.
    9. Eduardo Garzón Espinosa & Bibiana Medialdea García & Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Approaches: An Inquiring Look From The Modern Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 999-1022, October.
    10. Alberto Botta, 2020. "The short- and long-run inconsistency of the expansionary austerity theory: a post-Keynesian/evolutionist critique," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 143-177, January.
    11. Ad van Riet, 2018. "The European Central Bank as the Only Game in Town: How Could Fiscal Policy Makers Play Along?," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 51(1), pages 93-111.
    12. Vetlov, Igor & Ferdinandusse, Marien & de Jong, Jasper & Funda, Josip, 2017. "The effect of public investment in Europe: a model-based assessment," Working Paper Series 2021, European Central Bank.
    13. Christian Beer & Christian Alexander Belabed & Andreas Breitenfellner & Christian Ragacs & Beat Weber, 2017. "EU integration and its impact on Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/2017, pages 1-38.
    14. Conrad Scheibe, 2016. "Fiscal Consolidations and Their Effects on Income Inequality," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 2016-4, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    15. Christian Beer & Christian Alexander Belabed & Andreas Breitenfellner & Christian Ragacs & Beat Weber, 2017. "Österreich und die europäische Integration," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 86-126.
    16. Penson, Enrique, 2017. "An Analytic Estimation of the Multiplier Effect of Public Consumption in the Dominican Republic: 2007-2012," MPRA Paper 88592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Green Recovery Programmes. Conceptual Framing and a Review of the Empirical Literature," WIFO Working Papers 646, WIFO.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policies; Government debt; Sustainability; Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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