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Modified Causal Forests for Estimating Heterogeneous Causal Effects

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  • Lechner, Michael
Abstract
Uncovering the heterogeneity of causal effects of policies and business decisions at various levels of granularity provides substantial value to decision makers. This paper develops new estimation and inference procedures for multiple treatment models in a selection-on-observables framework by modifying the Causal Forest approach suggested by Wager and Athey (2018). The new esti-mators have desirable theoretical and computational properties for various aggregation levels of the causal effects. An Empirical Monte Carlo study shows that they may outperform previously suggested estimators. Inference tends to be accurate for effects relating to larger groups and conservative for effects relating to fine levels of granularity. An application to the evaluation of an active labour mar-ket programme shows the value of the new methods for applied research.

Suggested Citation

  • Lechner, Michael, 2019. "Modified Causal Forests for Estimating Heterogeneous Causal Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 13430, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13430
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    8. Michael Gerfin & Michael Lechner, 2002. "A Microeconometric Evaluation of the Active Labour Market Policy in Switzerland," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 854-893, October.
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    11. Michael Lechner & Anthony Strittmatter, 2019. "Practical procedures to deal with common support problems in matching estimation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 193-207, February.
    12. Xinkun Nie & Stefan Wager, 2017. "Quasi-Oracle Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," Papers 1712.04912, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    13. Anthony Strittmatter, 2018. "What Is the Value Added by Using Causal Machine Learning Methods in a Welfare Experiment Evaluation?," Papers 1812.06533, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    14. Michael C. Knaus & Michael Lechner & Anthony Strittmatter, 2022. "Heterogeneous Employment Effects of Job Search Programs: A Machine Learning Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(2), pages 597-636.
    15. Lu Tian & Ash A. Alizadeh & Andrew J. Gentles & Robert Tibshirani, 2014. "A Simple Method for Estimating Interactions Between a Treatment and a Large Number of Covariates," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(508), pages 1517-1532, December.
    16. Martin Huber & Michael Lechner & Giovanni Mellace, 2017. "Why Do Tougher Caseworkers Increase Employment? The Role of Program Assignment as a Causal Mechanism," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 180-183, March.
    17. Jonathan M.V. Davis & Sara B. Heller, 2017. "Using Causal Forests to Predict Treatment Heterogeneity: An Application to Summer Jobs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 546-550, May.
    18. Guido W. Imbens, 2004. "Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Under Exogeneity: A Review," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 4-29, February.
    19. Vikas Ramachandra, 2018. "Deep Learning for Causal Inference," Papers 1803.00149, arXiv.org.
    20. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017. "The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
    21. Jason Abrevaya & Yu-Chin Hsu & Robert P. Lieli, 2015. "Estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effects," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 485-505, October.
    22. A. Belloni & V. Chernozhukov & I. Fernández‐Val & C. Hansen, 2017. "Program Evaluation and Causal Inference With High‐Dimensional Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 233-298, January.
    23. Huber, Martin & Lechner, Michael & Wunsch, Conny, 2013. "The performance of estimators based on the propensity score," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(1), pages 1-21.
    24. Matt Taddy & Matt Gardner & Liyun Chen & David Draper, 2016. "A Nonparametric Bayesian Analysis of Heterogenous Treatment Effects in Digital Experimentation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 661-672, October.
    25. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2006. "Large Sample Properties of Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 235-267, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Goller, 2023. "Analysing a built-in advantage in asymmetric darts contests using causal machine learning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 649-679, June.
    2. Elena Denisova-Schmidt & Martin Huber & Elvira Leontyeva & Anna Solovyeva, 2021. "Combining experimental evidence with machine learning to assess anti-corruption educational campaigns among Russian university students," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1661-1684, April.
    3. Cockx, Bart & Lechner, Michael & Bollens, Joost, 2023. "Priority to unemployed immigrants? A causal machine learning evaluation of training in Belgium," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Denis Fougère & Nicolas Jacquemet, 2020. "Policy Evaluation Using Causal Inference Methods," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03455978, HAL.
    5. Patrick Rehill, 2024. "How do applied researchers use the Causal Forest? A methodological review of a method," Papers 2404.13356, arXiv.org.
    6. Goller, Daniel & Lechner, Michael & Moczall, Andreas & Wolff, Joachim, 2020. "Does the estimation of the propensity score by machine learning improve matching estimation? The case of Germany's programmes for long term unemployed," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Michael Zimmert & Michael Lechner, 2019. "Nonparametric estimation of causal heterogeneity under high-dimensional confounding," Papers 1908.08779, arXiv.org.
    8. Gabriel Okasa & Kenneth A. Younge, 2022. "Sample Fit Reliability," Papers 2209.06631, arXiv.org.
    9. Michael C Knaus, 2022. "Double machine learning-based programme evaluation under unconfoundedness [Econometric methods for program evaluation]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(3), pages 602-627.
    10. Paul Clarke & Annalivia Polselli, 2023. "Double Machine Learning for Static Panel Models with Fixed Effects," Papers 2312.08174, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    11. Daniel Goller & Tamara Harrer & Michael Lechner & Joachim Wolff, 2021. "Active labour market policies for the long-term unemployed: New evidence from causal machine learning," Papers 2106.10141, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    12. Kleifgen, Eva & Lang, Julia, 2022. "Should I Train Or Should I Go? Estimating Treatment Effects of Retraining on Regional and Occupational Mobility," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264069, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Boller, Daniel & Lechner, Michael & Okasa, Gabriel, 2021. "The Effect of Sport in Online Dating: Evidence from Causal Machine Learning," Economics Working Paper Series 2104, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    14. Lechner, Michael & Okasa, Gabriel, 2019. "Random Forest Estimation of the Ordered Choice Model," Economics Working Paper Series 1908, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    15. Faltings, Richard & Krumer, Alex & Lechner, Michael, 2019. "Rot-Jaune-Verde. Language and Favoritism: Evidence from Swiss Soccer," Economics Working Paper Series 1915, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    16. Ogundari, Kolawole, 2021. "A systematic review of statistical methods for estimating an education production function," MPRA Paper 105283, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Enzo Brox & Michael Lechner, 2024. "Teamwork and Spillover Effects in Performance Evaluations," Papers 2403.15200, arXiv.org.
    18. Steffen Mink & Daria Loginova & Stefan Mann, 2024. "Wolves' contribution to structural change in grazing systems among swiss alpine summer farms: The evidence from causal random forest," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 201-217, February.
    19. Gabriel Okasa, 2022. "Meta-Learners for Estimation of Causal Effects: Finite Sample Cross-Fit Performance," Papers 2201.12692, arXiv.org.
    20. Michael Lechner, 2023. "Causal Machine Learning and its use for public policy," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-15, December.
    21. Patrick Rehill & Nicholas Biddle, 2024. "Heterogeneous treatment effect estimation with high-dimensional data in public policy evaluation -- an application to the conditioning of cash transfers in Morocco using causal machine learning," Papers 2401.07075, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    22. Daria Loginova & Stefan Mann, 2023. "Measuring stability and structural breaks: Applications in social sciences," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 302-320, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Causal machine learning; Statistical learning; Average treatment effects; Conditional aver-age treatment effects; Multiple treatments; Selection-on-observable; Causal forests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

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