Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/11544.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, and the Great Recession

Author

Abstract
We study financial shocks to households’ ability to borrow in an economy that quantitatively replicates U.S. earnings, financial, and housing wealth distributions and the main macro aggregates. Such shocks generate large recessions via the negative wealth effect associated with the large drop in house prices triggered by the reduced access to credit of a large number of households. The model incorporates additional margins that are crucial for a large recession to occur: that it is difficult to reallocate production from consumption to investment or net exports, and that the reductions in consumption contribute to reductions in measured TFP.

Suggested Citation

  • Huo, Zhen, 2016. "Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, and the Great Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 11544, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11544
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP11544
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simon Gilchrist & Raphael Schoenle & Jae Sim & Egon Zakrajšek, 2017. "Inflation Dynamics during the Financial Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 785-823, March.
    2. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    3. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
    4. Diaz, Antonia & Pijoan-Mas, Josep & Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, 2003. "Precautionary savings and wealth distribution under habit formation preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1257-1291, September.
    5. John Sabelhaus & David Johnson & Stephen Ash & David Swanson & Thesia I. Garner & John Greenlees & Steve Henderson, 2014. "Is the Consumer Expenditure Survey Representative by Income?," NBER Chapters, in: Improving the Measurement of Consumer Expenditures, pages 241-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hui Chen & Michael Michaux & Nikolai Roussanov, 2020. "Houses as ATMs: Mortgage Refinancing and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 323-375, February.
    7. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2017. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(3), pages 1427-1467.
    8. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2015. "Household leveraging and deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 3-20, January.
    9. Vivian Yue & Sangeeta Pratap & George Alessandria, 2010. "Export Dynamics in Large Devaluations," 2010 Meeting Papers 1067, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Philippon, Thomas & Midrigan, Virgiliu, 2011. "Household Leverage and the Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 8381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Kurt Mitman & Gianluca Violante & Greg Kaplan, 2015. "Consumption and House Prices in the Great Recession: Model Meets Evidence," 2015 Meeting Papers 275, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial autarky and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April.
    13. Krusell, Per & Smith, Anthony A., 1997. "Income And Wealth Heterogeneity, Portfolio Choice, And Equilibrium Asset Returns," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 387-422, June.
    14. Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    15. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2011. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 255-296, March.
    16. Gordon Phillips & Kyle Herkenhoff, 2015. "The Impact of Consumer Credit Constraints on Earnings, Sorting, and Job Finding Rates of Displaced Workers," 2015 Meeting Papers 375, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Ayşegül Şahin, 2010. "Labour-Market Matching with Precautionary Savings and Aggregate Fluctuations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(4), pages 1477-1507.
    18. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    19. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2015. "A Quantitative Analysis of the US Housing and Mortgage Markets and the Foreclosure Crisis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 165-184, April.
    20. Greg Kaplan & Guido Menzio, 2016. "Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(3), pages 771-825.
    21. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
    22. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Francesco Trebbi, 2015. "Foreclosures, House Prices, and the Real Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2587-2634, December.
    23. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    24. Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas & Wasmer, Etienne, 2015. "Macroeconomic dynamics in a model of goods, labor, and credit market frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 97-113.
    25. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    26. Zhen Huo & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2015. "Tightening Financial Frictions on Households, Recessions, and Price Reallocations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 118-139, January.
    27. José I. Silva & Manuel Toledo, 2013. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: The Role Of Matching Costs Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 836-843, January.
    28. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    29. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 38-86, February.
    30. Lifschitz, Avihai & Setty, Ofer & Yedid-Levi, Yaniv, 2013. "Who Cares about Unemployment Insurance?," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275784, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    31. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "The Great Recession: Lessons from Microeconomic Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 51-56, May.
    32. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    33. Jonathan A. Parker & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2009. "Who Bears Aggregate Fluctuations and How?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 399-405, May.
    34. Jesse Bricker & Alice Henriques & Jacob Krimmel & John Sabelhaus, 2016. "Measuring Income and Wealth at the Top Using Administrative and Survey Data," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 261-331.
    35. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Paolo Surico, 2020. "Monetary Policy when Households have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 102-129.
    36. Callum Jones & Virgiliu Midrigan & Thomas Philippon, 2022. "Household Leverage and the Recession," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2471-2505, September.
    37. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1199-1239, July.
    38. Lei Fang & Jun Nie, 2014. "Human Capital Dynamics and the U.S. Labor Market," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    39. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    40. Christopher A. Pissarides, 1987. "Search, Wage Bargains and Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 54(3), pages 473-483.
    41. Saez, Emmanuel & Michaillat, Pascal, 2013. "A Model of Aggregate Demand and Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 9609, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Zhen Huo & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2013. "Paradox of Thrift Recessions," NBER Working Papers 19443, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Nils M. Gornemann & Keith Kuester & Makoto Nakajima, 2012. "Monetary policy with heterogeneous agents," Working Papers 12-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    44. George Alessandria, 2009. "Consumer Search, Price Dispersion, And International Relative Price Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 803-829, August.
    45. Greg Kaplan & Guido Menzio, 2016. "Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(3), pages 771-825.
    46. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-283, April.
    47. David Domeij & Jonathan Heathcote, 2004. "On The Distributional Effects Of Reducing Capital Taxes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 523-554, May.
    48. Rodolfo Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva & Carlos Garriga, 2012. "Bubbles or Fundamentals? Understanding Boom and Bust Episodes in the Housing Market," 2012 Meeting Papers 937, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    49. Charles W. Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William Miles, 2008. "The Foreclosure-House Price Nexus: Lessons from the 2007-2008 Housing Turmoil," NBER Working Papers 14294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Carol Corrado & Joe Mattey, 1997. "Capacity Utilization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 151-167, Winter.
    51. repec:pri:cepsud:234kaplan is not listed on IDEAS
    52. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
    53. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst, 2005. "Consumption versus Expenditure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 919-948, October.
    54. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst & Loukas Karabarbounis, 2013. "Time Use during the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1664-1696, August.
    55. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    56. Shimer, Robert, 2012. "Wage rigidities and jobless recoveries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 65-77.
    57. Diaz, Antonia & Pijoan-Mas, Josep & Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, 2003. "Precautionary savings and wealth distribution under habit formation preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1257-1291, September.
    58. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5por5bt92h8l0bc7ls4elmcc0b is not listed on IDEAS
    59. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 50-65, March.
    60. Huggett, Mark, 1993. "The risk-free rate in heterogeneous-agent incomplete-insurance economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 953-969.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2018. "Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 31-58, Summer.
    2. Greg Kaplan & Kurt Mitman & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3285-3345.
    3. Pierre Mabille, 2019. "Aggregate Precautionary Savings Motives," 2019 Meeting Papers 344, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Emil Verner & Győző Gyöngyösi, 2020. "Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2667-2702, September.
    5. Alonso, Cristian, 2018. "Hard vs. soft financial constraints: Implications for the effects of a credit crunch," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 198-223.
    6. Yavuz Arslan & Bulent Guler & Burhan Kuruscu, 2020. "Credit Supply Driven Boom-Bust Cycles," Working Papers tecipa-664, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    7. Alessandro Gavazza & Andrea Lanteri, 2021. "Credit Shocks and Equilibrium Dynamics in Consumer Durable Goods Markets [“Balladurette and Juppette: A Discrete Analysis of Scrapping Subsidies”]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2935-2969.
    8. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2020. "Mortgage Debt, Consumption, and Illiquid Housing Markets in the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1603-1634, June.
    9. Menno, Dominik & Oliviero, Tommaso, 2020. "Financial intermediation, house prices, and the welfare effects of the U.S. Great Recession," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. Nuno Paixao, 2019. "Propagation of House Price Shocks through the Banking System," 2019 Meeting Papers 1237, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Mian, A. & Sufi, A., 2016. "Who Bears the Cost of Recessions? The Role of House Prices and Household Debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 255-296, Elsevier.
    12. Nuno Paixao, 2018. "Housing Prices and Consumer Spending: The Bank Balance Sheet Channel," 2018 Meeting Papers 1017, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Yunho Cho & James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2024. "Did marginal propensities to consume change with the housing boom and bust?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 174-199, January.
    14. Herrera Luis & Vázquez Jesús, 2023. "Interpreting Structural Shocks and Assessing Their Historical Importance," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 375-425, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhen Huo & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2013. "Paradox of Thrift Recessions," NBER Working Papers 19443, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Zhen Huo & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2015. "Tightening Financial Frictions on Households, Recessions, and Price Reallocations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 118-139, January.
    3. Zhen Huo & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2012. "Engineering a paradox of thrift recession," Staff Report 478, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Zhen Huo & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2020. "Demand Induced Fluctuations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 99-117, August.
    5. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    6. Krueger, D. & Mitman, K. & Perri, F., 2016. "Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 843-921, Elsevier.
    7. Edouard Challe & Julien Matheron & Xavier Ragot & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramirez, 2017. "Precautionary saving and aggregate demand," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), pages 435-478, July.
    8. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.
    9. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2018. "Wealth and Volatility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2173-2213.
    10. Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim & Mark Bils, 2007. "Comparative Advantage in Cyclical Unemployment," 2007 Meeting Papers 508, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Ralph Luetticke, 2021. "Transmission of Monetary Policy with Heterogeneity in Household Portfolios," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-25, April.
    12. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2017. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(3), pages 1427-1467.
    13. Hall, R.E., 2016. "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2131-2181, Elsevier.
    14. Makoto Nakajima, 2012. "Business Cycles In The Equilibrium Model Of Labor Market Search And Self‐Insurance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 399-432, May.
    15. Pierre Mabille, 2019. "Aggregate Precautionary Savings Motives," 2019 Meeting Papers 344, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Virgiliu Midrigan & Denis Gorea, 2017. "Liquidity Constraints in the U.S. Housing Market," 2017 Meeting Papers 802, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Nils M. Gornemann & Keith Kuester & Makoto Nakajima, 2012. "Monetary policy with heterogeneous agents," Working Papers 12-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    18. Nils M. Gornemann & Keith Kuester & Makoto Nakajima, 2021. "Doves for the Rich, Hawks for the Poor? Distributional Consequences of Systematic Monetary Policy," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 50, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    19. Lütticke, Ralph & Bayer, Christian & Pham, Lien & Tjaden, Volker, 2013. "Household Income Risk, Nominal Frictions, and Incomplete Markets," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79868, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Marco Maffezzoli & Tommaso Monacelli, 2015. "Deleverage and Financial Fragility," Working Papers 546, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balance sheet recession; Asset price; Goods market frictions; Labor market frictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11544. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.