Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/csa/wpaper/2014-20-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

From Rebellion to Electoral Violence: Evidence from Burundi

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Colombo
  • Olivia D'Aoust
  • Olivier C. Sterck
Abstract
What causes electoral violence in post-conflict countries? The theoretical literature emphasizes the potential role of (1) ethnic grievances, (2) political competition and (3) specialists in violence. Our study is the first to test these three hypotheses simultaneously. Using a unique dataset on electoral violence in Burundi, we study variations in the intensity of electoral violence between neighboring municipalities, relying on the fact that these are more likely to have similar unobservable characteristics. Interestingly, we find that electoral violence did not result from ethnic grievances, which goes against the commonly held view that this factor necessarily plays a key role in violence in the region. Rather, we show that electoral violence is higher in municipalities characterized by acute polarization between demobilized rebel groups, fierce political competition and a high proportion of Hutu. The effect of political competition is stronger in the presence of numerous demobilized rebels

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Colombo & Olivia D'Aoust & Olivier C. Sterck, 2014. "From Rebellion to Electoral Violence: Evidence from Burundi," CSAE Working Paper Series 2014-20-2, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2014-20-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:3368cee0-29a8-4c81-b843-49d80f885884
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berman, Eli & Callen, Michael & Gibson, Clark C. & Long, James D. & Rezaee, Arman, 2019. "Election fairness and government legitimacy in Afghanistan," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 292-317.
    2. James A. Robinson & Ragnar Torvik, 2009. "The Real Swing Voter's Curse," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 310-315, May.
    3. Paul Collier & Pedro C. Vicente, 2014. "Votes and Violence: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Nigeria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(574), pages 327-355, February.
    4. Joseph Hilbe, 1994. "Negative binomial regression," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(18).
    5. Pascaline Dupas & Jonathan Robinson, 2010. "Coping with Political Instability: Micro Evidence from Kenya's 2007 Election Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 120-124, May.
    6. Elise Huillery, 2009. "History Matters: The Long-Term Impact of Colonial Public Investments in French West Africa," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 176-215, April.
    7. Cameron, A. Colin & Gelbach, Jonah B. & Miller, Douglas L., 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249.
    8. Lisa Chauvet & Paul Collier, 2009. "Elections and economic policy in developing countries [Opportunistic political cycles: test in a young democracy]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(59), pages 509-550.
    9. Paul Collier & Pedro Vicente, 2012. "Violence, bribery, and fraud: the political economy of elections in Sub-Saharan Africa," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 117-147, October.
    10. Olivia D�Aoust & Olivier Sterck & Philip Verwimp, 2013. "Buying Peace: The Mirage of Demobilizing Rebels," HiCN Working Papers 145, Households in Conflict Network.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10262 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Masayuki Kudamatsu, 2012. "Has Democratization Reduced Infant Mortality In Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence From Micro Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(6), pages 1294-1317, December.
    13. Macartan Humphreys & Jeremy M. Weinstein, 2007. "Demobilization and Reintegration," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(4), pages 531-567, August.
    14. Dercon, Stefan & Gutiérrez-Romero, Roxana, 2012. "Triggers and Characteristics of the 2007 Kenyan Electoral Violence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 731-744.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vandeginste, Stef, 2021. "Beyond Samuragwa’s sweet and sour succession: a closer look at Burundi’s 2020 elections," IOB Discussion Papers 2021.04, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB).
    2. Turnbull, Megan, 2021. "When armed groups refuse to carry out election violence: Evidence from Nigeria," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Olivier Sterck, 2020. "Fighting for Votes: Theory and Evidence on the Causes of Electoral Violence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(347), pages 844-883, July.
    4. Sterck, Olivier, 2016. "Natural resources and the spread of HIV/AIDS: Curse or blessing?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 271-278.
    5. Rasmané Ouedraogo & Idrissa Ouedraogo, 2019. "Gender Equality and Electoral Violence in Africa: Unlocking the Peacemaking Potential of Women," IMF Working Papers 2019/174, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Remme, Michelle & Siapka, Mariana & Sterck, Olivier & Ncube, Mthuli & Watts, Charlotte & Vassall, Anna, 2016. "Financing the HIV response in sub-Saharan Africa from domestic sources: Moving beyond a normative approach," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 66-76.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olivier Sterck, 2020. "Fighting for Votes: Theory and Evidence on the Causes of Electoral Violence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(347), pages 844-883, July.
    2. Fielding, David, 2018. "The geography of violence during a presidential election: Evidence from Zimbabwe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 538-558.
    3. Achyuta Adhvaryu & James Fenske, 2014. "Conflict and the Formation of Political Beliefs in Africa," HiCN Working Papers 164, Households in Conflict Network.
    4. Olivia D�Aoust & Olivier Sterck & Philip Verwimp, 2013. "Buying Peace: The Mirage of Demobilizing Rebels," HiCN Working Papers 145, Households in Conflict Network.
    5. Nick Obradovich, 2017. "Climate change may speed democratic turnover," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 135-147, January.
    6. Tilman Br�ck & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Andrew Tedesco & Alexandra Avdeenko, 2013. "Measuring Conflict Exposure in Micro-Level Surveys," HiCN Working Papers 153, Households in Conflict Network.
    7. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2016. "The Long-Run Effects of the Scramble for Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1802-1848, July.
    8. Ezequiel Gonzalez-Ocantos & Chad Kiewiet de Jonge & Carlos Meléndez & David Nickerson & Javier Osorio, 2020. "Carrots and sticks: Experimental evidence of vote-buying and voter intimidation in Guatemala," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(1), pages 46-61, January.
    9. Lodewijk Smets & Stephen Knack, 2018. "World Bank Policy Lending and the Quality of Public-Sector Governance," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(1), pages 29-54.
    10. Papaioannou, Elias & Michalopoulos, Stelios, 2010. "Divide and Rule or the Rule of the Divided? Evidence from Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 8088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Brück, Tilman & Justino, Patricia & Verwimp, Philip & Avdeenko, Alexandra, 2010. "Identifying Conflict and Violence in Micro-Level Surveys," IZA Discussion Papers 5067, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Roxana Gutiérrez-Romero, 2012. "An Inquiry into the Use of Illegal Electoral Practices and Effects of Political Violence," CSAE Working Paper Series 2012-16, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    13. Fenske, James, 2015. "African polygamy: Past and present," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 58-73.
    14. Fenske, James, 2015. "African polygamy: Past and present," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 58-73.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electoral violence; Polarization; Political competition; Demobilization; Burundi;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2014-20-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Julia Coffey (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csaoxuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.