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From Rebellion to Electoral Violence: Evidence from Burundi

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  • Andrea Colombo
  • Olivia D'Aoust
  • Olivier Sterck
Abstract
What causes electoral violence in postconflict countries? The theoretical literature emphasizes the potential role of (1) ethnic grievances, (2) political competition, and (3) specialists in violence. Our study is the first to test these three hypotheses simultaneously. Using a unique data set on electoral violence in Burundi, we study variations in the intensity of electoral violence between neighboring municipalities, relying on the fact that these are more likely to have similar unobservable characteristics. Interestingly, we find that electoral violence did not result from ethnic grievances, which goes against the commonly held view that this factor necessarily plays a key role in violence in the region. Rather, we show that electoral violence is higher in municipalities characterized by acute polarization between demobilized rebel groups, fierce political competition, and a high proportion of Hutu. The effect of political competition is stronger in the presence of numerous demobilized rebels.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Colombo & Olivia D'Aoust & Olivier Sterck, 2019. "From Rebellion to Electoral Violence: Evidence from Burundi," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 333-368.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:ecdecc:doi:10.1086/697583
    DOI: 10.1086/697583
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    Cited by:

    1. Vandeginste, Stef, 2021. "Beyond Samuragwa’s sweet and sour succession: a closer look at Burundi’s 2020 elections," IOB Discussion Papers 2021.04, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB).
    2. Turnbull, Megan, 2021. "When armed groups refuse to carry out election violence: Evidence from Nigeria," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Olivier Sterck, 2020. "Fighting for Votes: Theory and Evidence on the Causes of Electoral Violence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(347), pages 844-883, July.
    4. Sterck, Olivier, 2016. "Natural resources and the spread of HIV/AIDS: Curse or blessing?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 271-278.
    5. Rasmané Ouedraogo & Idrissa Ouedraogo, 2019. "Gender Equality and Electoral Violence in Africa: Unlocking the Peacemaking Potential of Women," IMF Working Papers 2019/174, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Remme, Michelle & Siapka, Mariana & Sterck, Olivier & Ncube, Mthuli & Watts, Charlotte & Vassall, Anna, 2016. "Financing the HIV response in sub-Saharan Africa from domestic sources: Moving beyond a normative approach," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 66-76.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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