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Market potential and global growth over the long twentieth century

Author

Listed:
  • David S. Jacks
  • Dennis Novy
Abstract
We examine the evolution of market potential and its role in driving economic growth over the long twentieth century. Theoretically, we exploit a structural gravity model to derive a closed-form solution for a widely-used measure of market potential. We are thus able to express market potential as a function of directly observable and easily estimated variables. Empirically, we collect a large dataset on aggregate and bilateral trade flows as well as output for 51 countries. We find that market potential exhibits an upward trend across all regions of the world from the early 1930s and that this trend significantly deviates from the evolution of world GDP. Finally, using exogenous variation in trade-related distances to world markets, we demonstrate a significant causal role of market potential in driving global income growth over this period.

Suggested Citation

  • David S. Jacks & Dennis Novy, 2018. "Market potential and global growth over the long twentieth century," CEP Discussion Papers dp1560, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1560
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Dan & Meissner, Christopher M., 2015. "Market potential and the rise of US productivity leadership," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 72-87.
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    6. Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm, 2008. "The Costs of Remoteness: Evidence from German Division and Reunification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1766-1797, December.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jacks, David S. & Yan, Se & Zhao, Liuyan, 2017. "Silver points, silver flows, and the measure of Chinese financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 377-386.
    2. David S. Jacks & Dennis Novy, 2020. "Trade Blocs and Trade Wars during the Interwar Period," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 119-136, January.
    3. Brülhart, Marius & Desmet, Klaus & Klinke, Gian-Paolo, 2020. "The shrinking advantage of market potential," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Dan Liu & Christopher M. Meissner, 2017. "Geography, Income, and Trade in the 21st Century," NBER Working Papers 24121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Polasik, Michał & Huterska, Agnieszka & Iftikhar, Rehan & Mikula, Štěpán, 2020. "The impact of Payment Services Directive 2 on the PayTech sector development in Europe," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 385-401.
    6. Gabrielle Gambuli, 2023. "Navigating the Geography of Regional Disparities: Market Access and the Core-Periphery Divide," THEMA Working Papers 2023-05, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    7. David S. Jacks & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "The Gravitational Constant?," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _184, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2021. "Import liberalization as export destruction? Evidence from the United States," CEP Discussion Papers dp1779, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Sasidaran Gopalan & Luu Nguyen Trieu Duong & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2020. "Trade configurations in Asia: Assessing de facto and de jure regionalism," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 1034-1058, April.
    10. Jue Wang & Shi Wang & Hua Wang & Yan Song, 2022. "A Numerical Simulation Analysis Framework of Sustainable Regional Economic Cooperation: A Case Study of the New Silk Road Economic Belt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, May.
    11. Christopher David Absell, 2020. "The rise of coffee in the Brazilian south‐east: tariffs and foreign market potential, 1827–40," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(4), pages 964-990, November.
    12. Ignatov, Augustin, 2024. "European highway networks, transportation costs, and regional income," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    13. Liu, Dan & Meissner, Christopher M., 2019. "Market potential and economic development with non-homotheticity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 217-228.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic geography; market potential; structural gravity; trade costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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