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Beyond the doomsday economics of "proof-of-work" in cryptocurrencies

Author

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  • Raphael Auer
Abstract
This paper discusses the economics of how Bitcoin achieves data immutability, and thus payment finality, via costly computations, ie "proof-of-work". Further, it explores what the future might hold for cryptocurrencies modelled on this type of consensus algorithm. The conclusions are, first, that Bitcoin counterfeiting via "double-spending" attacks is inherently profitable, making payment finality based on proof-of-work extremely expensive. Second, the transaction market cannot generate an adequate level of "mining" income via fees as users free-ride on the fees of other transactions in a block and in the subsequent blockchain. Instead, newly minted bitcoins, known as block rewards, have made up the bulk of mining income to date. Looking ahead, these two limitations imply that liquidity is set to fall dramatically as these block rewards are phased out. Simple calculations suggest that once block rewards are zero, it could take months before a Bitcoin payment is final, unless new technologies are deployed to speed up payment finality. Second-layer solutions such as the Lightning Network might help, but the only fundamental remedy would be to depart from proof-of-work, which would probably require some form of social coordination or institutionalisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Auer, 2019. "Beyond the doomsday economics of "proof-of-work" in cryptocurrencies," BIS Working Papers 765, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:765
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph Abadi & Markus Brunnermeier, 2018. "Blockchain Economics," NBER Working Papers 25407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Schilling, Linda & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Some simple bitcoin economics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 16-26.
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    6. Eric Budish, 2018. "The Economic Limits of Bitcoin and the Blockchain," NBER Working Papers 24717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Raphael Auer & Stijn Claessens, 2018. "Regulating cryptocurrencies: assessing market reactions," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan Chiu & Thorsten V. Koeppl, 2017. "The Economics Of Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin And Beyond," Working Paper 1389, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    2. Hossein Nabilou, 2020. "Testing the waters of the Rubicon: the European Central Bank and central bank digital currencies," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 299-314, December.
    3. Rodney J. Garratt & Maarten R. C. van Oordt, 2023. "Why Fixed Costs Matter for Proof-of-Work–Based Cryptocurrencies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(11), pages 6482-6507, November.
    4. Auer, Raphael & Tercero-Lucas, David, 2022. "Distrust or speculation? The socioeconomic drivers of U.S. cryptocurrency investments," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Silvia Bartolucci & Andrei Kirilenko, 2019. "A Model of the Optimal Selection of Crypto Assets," Papers 1906.09632, arXiv.org.
    6. Tim Roughgarden, 2021. "Transaction Fee Mechanism Design," Papers 2106.01340, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    7. Divakaruni, Anantha & Zimmerman, Peter, 2023. "The Lightning Network: Turning Bitcoin into money," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Costantini, Mauro & Maaitah, Ahmad & Mishra, Tapas & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2023. "Bitcoin market networks and cyberattacks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 630(C).
    9. Yun Kuen Cheung & Stefanos Leonardos & Georgios Piliouras & Shyam Sridhar, 2021. "From Griefing to Stability in Blockchain Mining Economies," Papers 2106.12332, arXiv.org.
    10. Cornelia Pop & Ingrid-Emanuela Colonescu, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies’ Puzzle," JOURNAL STUDIA UNIVERSITATIS BABES-BOLYAI NEGOTIA, Babes-Bolyai University, Faculty of Business.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cryptocurrencies; crypto-assets; digital currencies; blockchain; proof-of-work; proof-of-stake; distributed ledger technology; consensus; bitcoin; ethereum; money; digitalisation; finance; history of money;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • D20 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - General
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General

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