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Cyclicality of Job and Worker Flows: New Data and a New Set of Stylized Facts

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  • Wellschmied, Felix Maximilian
  • Bachmann, Rüdiger
  • Bayer, Christian
  • Seth, Stefan
Abstract
We study the relationship between cyclical job and worker flows at the plant level using a new data set spanning from 1976-2006. We find that procyclical labor demand explains relatively little of procyclical worker flows. Instead, all plants in the employment growth distribution increase their worker turnover during booms. We also find that cyclical changes in the employment growth distribution are mostly driven by plants moving from inactivity to a growing labor force during booms. Consequently, increased labor turnover at growing plants is the main quantitative driver behind increased labor turnover during booms. We argue that on the job search models are able to capture non-parallel shifts in the employment growth distribution and procyclical conditional worker flows for a range of the growth distribution. Yet, they fail to rationalize procyclical accession rates for all shrinking and procylical separation rates for all growing plants.

Suggested Citation

  • Wellschmied, Felix Maximilian & Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian & Seth, Stefan, 2013. "Cyclicality of Job and Worker Flows: New Data and a New Set of Stylized Facts," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79874, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79874
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tanaka, Satoshi & Warren, Lawrence & Wiczer, David, 2023. "Earnings growth, job flows and churn," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 86-98.
    2. Manuel Sanchez & Felix Wellschmied, 2020. "Modeling Life-Cycle Earnings Risk with Positive and Negative Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 103-126, July.
    3. Lutz Bellmann & Hans†Dieter Gerner & Richard Upward, 2018. "Job and Worker Turnover in German Establishments," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 86(4), pages 417-445, July.
    4. Richard Upward & Hans-Dieter Gerner & Lutz Bellmann, 2014. "Beschäftigungsanpassung in deutschen Betrieben: Flexibler als gedacht? [Employment adjustment in German firms: more flexible than we thought?]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 47(1), pages 71-81, March.
    5. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian & Merkl, Christian & Seth, Stefan & Stüber, Heiko & Wellschmied, Felix, 2017. "Worker Churn and Employment Growth at the Establishment Level," IZA Discussion Papers 11063, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian & Merkl, Christian & Seth, Stefan & Stüber, Heiko & Wellschmied, Felix, 2021. "Worker churn in the cross section and over time: New evidence from Germany," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 781-797.
    7. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian & Merkl, Christian & Seth, Stefan & Stüber, Heiko & Wellschmied, Felix, 2017. "Job and worker flows: New stylized facts for Germany," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 02/2017, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    8. Lichter, Andreas, 2016. "Benefit Duration and Job Search Effort: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 10264, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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