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The cyclical behavior of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies across OECD countries

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  • Pedro S. Amaral
  • Murat Tasci
Abstract
We show that the inability of a standardly-calibrated stochastic labor search-and-matching model to account for the observed volatility of unemployment and vacancies extends beyond U.S. data to a set of OECD countries. We also argue that using cross-country data is helpful in evaluating the relative merits of the alternatives that have appeared in the literature. In illustrating this point, we take the solution proposed in Hagedorn and Manovskii (2008) and show that its ability to match the labor market volatility magnitudes seen in the data depends crucially on how persistent the estimated productivity process is.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro S. Amaral & Murat Tasci, 2012. "The cyclical behavior of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies across OECD countries," Working Papers (Old Series) 1236, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1236
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Amaral, 2014. "The cyclicality of the Portuguese labour market: a macroeconomic perspective in the OECD context," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Amaral, Pedro S. & Tasci, Murat, 2016. "The cyclical behavior of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies across OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 184-201.
    3. Martin, Christopher & Wang, Bingsong, 2020. "Search, shirking and labor market volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Meradj Morteza Pouraghdam, 2016. "Three essays on the role of frictions in the economy [Trois essais sur le rôle du désaccord en économie]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03498781, HAL.
    5. Gabriele Cardullo & Marco Guerrazzi, 2016. "The Cyclical Volatility of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies: Evidence From Italy," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(4), pages 433-454, December.
    6. Marco Fongoni, 2018. "Workers' reciprocity and the (ir)relevance of wage cyclicality for the volatility of job creation," Working Papers 1809, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    7. Haefke, Christian & Reiter, Michael, 2020. "Long Live the Vacancy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 654, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Venky Venkateswaran, 2011. "Heterogeneous Information and Labor Market Fluctuations," 2011 Meeting Papers 1292, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Ginters Buss, 2015. "Search-and-Matching Frictions and Labour Market Dynamics in Latvia," Working Papers 2015/04, Latvijas Banka.
    10. Hafstead, Marc A.C. & Williams, Roberton C., 2018. "Unemployment and environmental regulation in general equilibrium," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 50-65.
    11. Noritaka Kudoh & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2021. "General Equilibrium Effects and Labor Market Fluctuations," Working Papers SDES-2021-4, Kochi University of Technology, School of Economics and Management, revised May 2021.
    12. Gábor Pintér, 2019. "House Prices and Job Losses," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 991-1013.
    13. Chun-Hung Kuo & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2016. "Unemployment and Wage Rigidity in Japan: A DSGE Model Perspective," Working Papers EMS_2016_06, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    14. Marc A. C. Hafstead & Roberton C. Williams & Yunguang Chen, 2022. "Environmental Policy, Full-Employment Models, and Employment: A Critical Analysis," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(2), pages 199-234.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/293qice3lj861rvos9ns14n0h0 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Armando Näf & Yannic Stucki & Jacqueline Thomet, 2022. "The Effects of Firing Costs on Labour Market Dynamics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(354), pages 461-488, April.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/293qice3lj861rvos9ns14n0h0 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Guglielminetti, Elisa & Pouraghdam, Meradj, 2018. "Time-varying job creation and macroeconomic shocks," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 156-179.
    19. Meradj Morteza Pouraghdam, 2016. "Three essays on the role of frictions in the economy [Trois essais sur le rôle du désaccord en économie]," SciencePo Working papers tel-03498781, HAL.
    20. Martin, Chris & Wang, Bingsong, 2018. "Unemployment Volatility in a Behavioural Search Model," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1179, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; Wages; Business cycles; Human capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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