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How the ECB and US Fed set interest rates

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  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Polleit, Thorsten
Abstract
Monetary policies of the ECB and US Fed can be characterised by Taylor rules, that is both central banks seem to be setting rates by taking into account the output gap and inflation. We also set up and tested Taylor rules which incorporate money growth and the euro-dollar exchange rate, thereby improving the fit between actual and Taylor rule based rates. In general, Taylor rules appear to be a much better way of describing Fed policy than ECB policy. Simulations suggest that the ECB's short-term interest rates have been at a much lower level in the last two years compared with what a Taylor rule would suggest.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Polleit, Thorsten, 2006. "How the ECB and US Fed set interest rates," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 72, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fsfmwp:72
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Central Bank; Federal Reserve; Monetary policy; Taylor rule;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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