Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lmu/muenar/19716.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Wollmershäuser, Timo
Abstract
This paper evaluates the performance of simple policy rules in an open economy. By introducing a high degree of exchange rate uncertainty we find that policy rules with an important feedback from movements in the real exchange rate are very robust to uncertainty about the true exchange rate model. A closed economy rule performs badly in most exchange rate specifications. This is in contrast to the findings of many other studies. In our view, this result is due to the fact that these studies assume a known and reliable relationship between the exchange rate and the interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Munich Reprints in Economics 19716, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:19716
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimizing Agents and Sticky Prices," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 74-91, Winter.
    2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    3. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-153, March.
    6. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    7. Richard H. Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1997. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 363-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
    9. Andrew T.. Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 1999. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 263-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
    11. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October.
    12. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
    13. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(s1), pages 1-35.
    14. Adolfson, Malin, 2007. "Incomplete exchange rate pass-through and simple monetary policy rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 468-494, April.
    15. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
    16. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    17. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June.
    18. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, October.
    19. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
    21. Meredith Beechey & Nargis Bharucha & Adam Cagliarini & David Gruen & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    22. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September.
    23. Denise Côté & John Kuszczak & Jean‐Paul Lam & Ying Liu & Pierre St‐Amant, 2004. "The performance and robustness of simple monetary policy rules in models of the Canadian economy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 978-998, November.
    24. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    25. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
    26. Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Monetary Policy with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 476, Stockholm School of Economics.
    27. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530, Elsevier.
    28. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
    30. Taylor, John B. (ed.), 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226791258.
    31. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    32. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:933-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2059-2094, September.
    34. Wieland, Volker & Coenen, Günter, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area and Japan," Working Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    35. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    36. David H. Romer, 2000. "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 149-169, Spring.
    37. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.
    38. Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    39. Chris Ryan & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    40. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1997. "Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rome97-1.
    41. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. M. S. Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2005. "Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Market Economies: Issues and Evidence," Springer Books, in: Rolf J. Langhammer & Lúcio Vinhas Souza (ed.), Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, pages 205-245, Springer.
    43. Paul Grauwe & Hans Dewachter, 1993. "A chaotic model of the exchange rate: The role of fundamentalists and chartists," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 351-379, December.
    44. repec:bla:scandj:v:104:y:2002:i:3:p:391-97 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. Tore Ellingsen & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1594-1607, December.
    46. repec:bla:manchs:v:67:y:1999:i:0:p:1-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    47. Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 1999. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    48. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    49. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    50. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
    51. Mr. Benjamin L Hunt & Mr. Peter Isard, 2003. "Some Implications for Monetary Policy of Uncertain Exchange Rate Pass-Through," IMF Working Papers 2003/025, International Monetary Fund.
    52. Mr. Yongseung Jung & Woon Gyu Choi, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Habit Formation and Nominal Rigidities," IMF Working Papers 2003/005, International Monetary Fund.
    53. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "When the Bubble Bursts: Monetary Policy Rules and Foreign Exchange Market Behavior," Working Papers 2000-01, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    54. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    55. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
    56. repec:bla:ecorec:v:76:y:2000:i:235:p:321-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    57. McCallum, Bennett T., 1996. "International Monetary Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195094947.
    58. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    59. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Moons, Cindy, 2009. "An Estimated Two-Country DSGE Model: losses from UK membership in EMU," Working Papers 2009/23, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
    2. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Giovanni Lombardo, 2020. "Implementable Rules for International Monetary Policy Coordination," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 108-162, March.
    3. Parhizgari, A.M. & Pavlova, I., 2007. "Post-euro EU and US interest rates and foreign exchange rates: Are they in harmony or in disarray," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 616-636, December.
    4. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & John Driffill, 2011. "Bubbles In Exchange Rates And Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(1), pages 29-50, February.
    5. Jesus M. Garcia-Iglesias & Rebeca Muñoz Torres & George Saridakis, 2013. "Did the Bank of Mexico follow a systematic behaviour in its transition to an inflation targeting regime?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1205-1213, July.
    6. Mikael Bask, 2014. "A Case For Interest Rate Inertia In Monetary Policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 140-159, March.
    7. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
    8. Holtemöller, Oliver, 2007. "The Effects of Joining a Monetary Union on Output and Inflation Variability in Accession Countries," MPRA Paper 8633, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Tronzano, Marco, 2009. "Assessing the Volatility of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Markets: Further Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 103-131.
    10. Jannsen, Nils & Klein, Melanie, 2011. "The international transmission of euro area monetary policy shocks," Kiel Working Papers 1718, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 712-724, May.
    12. Harsha Paranavithana & Leandro Magnusson & Rod Tyers, 2020. "Transitions to inflation targeting: panel evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(59), pages 6468-6481, December.
    13. Carlos Garcia & Wildo Gonzalez, 2010. "Is more exchange rate intervention necessary in small open economies? The role of risk premium and commodity shocks," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv248, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    14. Furlani, Luiz Gustavo Cassilatti & Portugal, Marcelo Savino & Laurini, Márcio Poletti, 2010. "Exchange rate movements and monetary policy in Brazil: Econometric and simulation evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 284-295, January.
    15. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & John Driffill, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy with a regime-switching exchange rate in a forward-looking model," GEMF Working Papers 2007-09, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    16. Lengnick, Matthias & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with animal spirits and financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 148-165.
    17. Garcia, Carlos J. & Restrepo, Jorge E. & Roger, Scott, 2011. "How much should inflation targeters care about the exchange rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1590-1617.
    18. René Cabral & Francisco G. Carneiro & André Varella Mollick, 2020. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate volatility in emerging markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 605-626, February.
    19. Carlos Garcia & Wildo Gonzalez, 2009. "Rationale behind the responses of monetary policy to the real exchange rate in small open economies," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv228, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    20. Carlos Garcia & Wildo Gonzalez, 2014. "Why does monetary policy respond to the real exchange rate in small open economies? A Bayesian perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 789-825, May.
    21. Bayangos, V.B., 2006. "Exchange rate uncertainty and monetary transmission in the Philippines," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19193, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    22. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Cindy Moons, 2013. "Losses from Membership in EMU: An Estimated Two-Country DSGE Model," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 59(1), pages 27-61.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    3. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    4. Richard Dennis, 2003. "Exploring the Role of the Real Exchange Rate in Australian Monetary Policy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(244), pages 20-38, March.
    5. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Adolfson, Malin, 2007. "Incomplete exchange rate pass-through and simple monetary policy rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 468-494, April.
    7. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
    8. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2059-2094, September.
    9. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    10. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    11. Wieland, Volker & Coenen, Günter, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area and Japan," Working Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    12. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 3577, CESifo.
    13. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    14. Deming Luo & Stephen Ferris, 2008. "Optimal Simple Monetary Policy Rules in a Small Open Economy with Exchange Rate Imperfections," Carleton Economic Papers 08-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    15. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    16. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "Openness, imperfect exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 947-981, July.
    17. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & John Driffill, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy with a regime-switching exchange rate in a forward-looking model," GEMF Working Papers 2007-09, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    18. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    19. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    20. repec:zbw:bofitp:2009_023 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:bla:intfin:v:6:y:2003:i:3:p:349-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Pär Österholm, 2005. "The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 217-247, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:19716. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tamilla Benkelberg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.