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Output composition and the US output volatility decline

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco Alcalá

    (University of Murcia)

  • Israel Sancho

    (University of Murcia)

Abstract
We argue that the role played by output-composition changes on the decline in US output volatility has been incorrectly assessed in the recent literature. We obtain that shifts across broad sectors in the economy account for about thirty-percent of the volatility decline since the 1950’s.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Alcalá & Israel Sancho, 2003. "Output composition and the US output volatility decline," Macroeconomics 0307005, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jul 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0307005
    Note: Type of Document - ; pages: 9
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    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0307/0307005.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
    4. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    5. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 183-202.
    6. Karl Whelan, 2000. "A guide to the use of chain aggregated NIPA data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Olabisi, 2020. "Input–Output Linkages and Sectoral Volatility," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(347), pages 713-746, July.
    2. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
    3. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2004. "Deconstructing the Art of Central Banking," IMF Working Papers 2004/195, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Alessio Moro, 2012. "The Structural Transformation Between Manufacturing and Services and the Decline in the US GDP Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 402-415, July.
    5. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores & Gomez-Loscos, Ana, 2014. "The Two Greatest. Great Recession vs. Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 10092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith & Matthew Weiss, 2008. "Forecast Errors Before and After the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2008-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2009.
    7. Dantas Guimarães, Silvana & Ferreira Tiryaki, Gisele, 2020. "The impact of population aging on business cycles volatility: International evidence," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    8. Bivin, David, 2006. "Decomposing the contribution of smaller shocks to the stabilization of GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 444-449, June.
    9. Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2005. "Long-Run Productivity Shifts and Cyclical Fluctuations: Evidence for Italy," IMF Working Papers 2005/228, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    volatility; business fluctuations;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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