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The impact of population aging on business cycles volatility: International evidence

Author

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  • Dantas Guimarães, Silvana
  • Ferreira Tiryaki, Gisele
Abstract
The effects of population aging on short-run macroeconomic performance are theoretically ambiguous. Increased longevity may compromise public budgets’ sustainability due to the growing expenditures with health services and social security. It may also affect labor market dynamics and influence savings’ behavior, leading to lower equilibrium interest rates and more restricted monetary policy interventions’ space. Yet, consumers and entrepreneurs become more risk-averse as life expectancy grows, which may reduce the volatility of consumption and investment. This paper aims at verifying if population aging promotes or hinders macroeconomic stability. Using data from 146 economies between 1996 and 2016, static and dynamic panel data models were estimated controlling for other factors that affect short-run macroeconomic performance. The results indicate that countries with an aging population exhibit lower consumption and investment volatility, but output volatility seems to increase as the population grows older likely due to the labor market responses to aging and greater international trade volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Dantas Guimarães, Silvana & Ferreira Tiryaki, Gisele, 2020. "The impact of population aging on business cycles volatility: International evidence," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:17:y:2020:i:c:s2212828x20300505
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2020.100285
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Population aging; Demographics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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