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Demographic dynamics and long-run development: Insights for the secular stagnation debate

Author

Listed:
  • Cervellati, Matteo

    (IZA Bonn, and University of Bologna)

  • Sunde, Uwe

    (IZA Bonn, and University of Munich)

  • Zimmermann, Klaus F.

    (UNU-MERIT, and Princeton University)

Abstract
This paper takes a global, long-run perspective on the recent debate about secular stagnation, which has so far mainly focused on the short term. The analysis is motivated by observing the interplay between the economic and demographic transition that has occurred in the developed world over the past 150 years. To the extent that high growth rates in the past have partly been the consequence of singular changes during the economic and demographic transition, growth is likely to become more moderate once the transition is completed. At the same time, a similar transition is on its way in most developing countries, with profound consequences for the development prospects in these countries, but also for global comparative development. The evidence presented here suggests that long-run development dynamics have potentially important implications for the prospects of human and physical capital accumulation, the evolution of productivity and the question of secular stagnation.

Suggested Citation

  • Cervellati, Matteo & Sunde, Uwe & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2016. "Demographic dynamics and long-run development: Insights for the secular stagnation debate," MERIT Working Papers 2016-049, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2016049
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kotschy, Rainer, 2022. "Health improvements impact income inequality," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    3. Rainer Kotschy & Uwe Sunde & Tommaso MonacelliManaging Editor, 2018. "Can education compensate the effect of population ageing on macroeconomic performance?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 33(96), pages 587-634.
    4. Matteo Cervellati & Gerrit Meyerheim & Uwe Sunde, 2023. "The empirics of economic growth over time and across nations: a unified growth perspective," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 173-224, June.
    5. Thomas I. Renström & Luca Spataro, 2021. "Optimal taxation in an endogenous growth model with variable population and public expenditure," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 23(4), pages 639-659, August.
    6. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin, 2024. "Fertility and the oil curse," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 381-416, August.
    7. Miikka Voutilainen & Jouni Helske & Harri Högmander, 2020. "A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(3), pages 1171-1192, June.
    8. Thomas Ziesemer & Anne von Gässler, 2021. "Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(2), pages 129-160, May.
    9. Dariusz Cezary Kotlewski, 2023. "The soundness of returning to manufacturing through the lens of productivity accounting," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 3, pages 253-274.
    10. Addessi, William, 2018. "Population age structure and consumption expenditure composition: Evidence from European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 18-20.
    11. Sirio Cividino & Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Luca Salvati, 2020. "Revisiting the “City Life Cycle”: Global Urbanization and Implications for Regional Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, February.
    12. Gori, Luca & Sodini, Mauro, 2020. "Endogenous labour supply, endogenous lifetime and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 238-259.
    13. Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) & Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра) & Petrova, Diana (Петрова, Диана) & Chaikina, Anastasiia (Чайкина, Анастасия) & Nikanorov, Ivan (Никаноров, Иван), 2018. "Analysis of Approaches to Studying the Problem of Long-Term Stagnation in Modern Economies [Анализ Подходов К Изучению Проблемы Долговременной Стагнации В Современных Экономиках]," Working Papers 031810, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    14. Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke, 2023. "Population Aging, Retirement, and Aggregate Productivity," CESifo Working Paper Series 10594, CESifo.
    15. Emerson, Patrick & Knabb, Shawn & Sirbu, Anca-Ioana, 2024. "Does the old-age dependency ratio place a drag on secular growth?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1056-1070.
    16. Hellwagner, Timon & Weber, Enzo, 2021. "Labour Market Adjustments to Population Decline," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242455, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    secular stagnation; long-term development; income growth; demographic transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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