Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tse/wpaper/125088.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Information Aggregation with Asymmetric Asset Payoffs

Author

Listed:
  • Albagli, Elias
  • Hellwig, Christian
  • Tsyvinski, Aleh
Abstract
We study noisy aggregation of dispersed information in financial markets without imposing parametric restrictions on preferences, information, and return distributions. We provide a gen-eral characterization of asset returns by means of a risk-neutral probability measure that features excess weight on tail risks. Moreover, we link excess weight on tail risks to observable moments such as forecast dispersion and accuracy, and argue that it provides a unified explanation for several prominent cross-sectional return anomalies. Simple calibrations suggest the model can account for a significant fraction of empirical returns to skewness, returns to disagreement and interaction effects between the two.

Suggested Citation

  • Albagli, Elias & Hellwig, Christian & Tsyvinski, Aleh, 2021. "Information Aggregation with Asymmetric Asset Payoffs," TSE Working Papers 21-1172, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Apr 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:125088
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tse-fr.eu/sites/default/files/TSE/documents/doc/wp/2021/wp_tse_1172.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.tse-fr.eu/sites/default/files/TSE/documents/doc/wp/2021/wp_tse_1172_appendix.pdf
    File Function: Appendix
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bai, Jennie & Goldstein, Robert S. & Yang, Fan, 2020. "Is the credit spread puzzle a myth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 297-319.
    2. Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October.
    3. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    4. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2023. "Imperfect Financial Markets and Investment Inefficiencies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(9), pages 2323-2354, September.
    5. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2008. "Stocks as Lotteries: The Implications of Probability Weighting for Security Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2066-2100, December.
    6. Laura L. Veldkamp, 2011. "Information Choice in Macroeconomics and Finance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9621.
    7. Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2001. "Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis, and Herding," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296980.
    8. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Levered Equity Risk Premium and Credit Spreads: A Unified Framework," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 645-703, February.
    9. Georgy Chabakauri & Kathy Yuan & Konstantinos E Zachariadis, 2022. "Multi-asset Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium with Contingent Claims," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(5), pages 2445-2490.
    10. Yu, Jialin, 2011. "Disagreement and return predictability of stock portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 162-183, January.
    11. Brian Boyer & Todd Mitton & Keith Vorkink, 2010. "Expected Idiosyncratic Skewness," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 169-202, January.
    12. William R. Gebhardt & Charles M. C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2001. "Toward an Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 135-176, June.
    13. Marco Bassetto & Carlo Galli, 2019. "Is Inflation Default? The Role of Information in Debt Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(10), pages 3556-3584, October.
    14. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2171-2212, December.
    15. Hui Chen & Rui Cui & Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2018. "Quantifying Liquidity and Default Risks of Corporate Bonds over the Business Cycle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 852-897.
    16. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Gollier, 2007. "Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 159-165, May.
    17. Straub, Ludwig & Ulbricht, Robert, 2015. "Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches," TSE Working Papers 15-604, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Dec 2017.
    18. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Dynamic Dispersed Information and the Credit Spread Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 19788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. T. Clifton Green & Byoung-Hyoun Hwang, 2012. "Initial Public Offerings as Lotteries: Skewness Preference and First-Day Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 432-444, February.
    20. Bradyn Breon-Drish, 2015. "On Existence and Uniqueness of Equilibrium in a Class of Noisy Rational Expectations Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(3), pages 868-921.
    21. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1981. "Information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 221-235, September.
    22. Kathy Yuan, 2005. "Asymmetric Price Movements and Borrowing Constraints: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model of Crises, Contagion, and Confusion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 379-411, February.
    23. Milgrom, Paul R, 1981. "Rational Expectations, Information Acquisition, and Competitive Bidding," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 921-943, June.
    24. Carlin, Bruce I. & Longstaff, Francis A. & Matoba, Kyle, 2014. "Disagreement and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 226-238.
    25. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
    26. Milgrom, Paul R, 1979. "A Convergence Theorem for Competitive Bidding with Differential Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 679-688, May.
    27. Jing-Zhi Huang & Ming Huang, 2012. "How Much of the Corporate-Treasury Yield Spread Is Due to Credit Risk?," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 153-202.
    28. Andrea Buraschi & Fabio Trojani & Andrea Vedolin, 2014. "Economic Uncertainty, Disagreement, and Credit Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(5), pages 1281-1296, May.
    29. Robert Wilson, 1977. "A Bidding Model of Perfect Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 44(3), pages 511-518.
    30. Aleh Tsyvinski & Arijit Mukherji & Christian Hellwig, 2006. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1769-1787, December.
    31. Long Chen & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2009. "On the Relation Between the Credit Spread Puzzle and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3367-3409, September.
    32. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2017. "Imperfect Financial Markets and Shareholder Incentives in Partial and General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 23419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Dispersed Information and Asset Prices," Working Papers hal-03118639, HAL.
    2. Albagli, Elias & Hellwig, Christian & Tsyvinski, Aleh, 2022. "Information Aggregation and Asymmetric Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 15644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2011. "A Theory of Asset Prices Based on Heterogeneous Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1827, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Eduardo Dávila & Cecilia Parlatore, 2021. "Trading Costs and Informational Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1471-1539, June.
    5. Dávila, Eduardo & Parlatore, Cecilia, 2023. "Volatility and informativeness," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 550-572.
    6. Shi, Zhan, 2019. "Time-varying ambiguity, credit spreads, and the levered equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 617-646.
    7. García, Diego & Urošević, Branko, 2013. "Noise and aggregation of information in large markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 526-549.
    8. Lou, Youcheng & Parsa, Sahar & Ray, Debraj & Li, Duan & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Information aggregation in a financial market with general signal structure," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 594-624.
    9. Feldhütter, Peter & Schaefer, Stephen, 2023. "Debt dynamics and credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 497-535.
    10. Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski & Elias Albagli, 2014. "Dynamic Dispersed Information and the Credit Spread Puzzle," 2014 Meeting Papers 808, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Georgy Chabakauri & Kathy Yuan & Konstantinos E Zachariadis, 2022. "Multi-asset Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium with Contingent Claims," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(5), pages 2445-2490.
    12. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
    13. Peter Christoffersen & Du Du & Redouane Elkamhi, 2017. "Rare Disasters, Credit, and Option Market Puzzles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1341-1364, May.
    14. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2023. "Imperfect Financial Markets and Investment Inefficiencies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(9), pages 2323-2354, September.
    15. Matthijs Breugem & Adrian Buss, 2017. "Institutional Investors and Information Acquisition: Implications for Asset Prices and Informational Efficiency," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 524, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    16. Diego García & Branko Urosevic, 2004. "Noise and aggregation of information in large markets," Economics Working Papers 785, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    17. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2017. "Imperfect Financial Markets and Shareholder Incentives in Partial and General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 23419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Jing-Zhi Huang & Bibo Liu & Zhan Shi, 2023. "Determinants of Short-Term Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from the Commercial Paper Market," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 539-579.
    19. Lin, Mei-Chen, 2023. "Analyst coverage and the idiosyncratic skewness effect in the Taiwan stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    20. Luca Bernardinelli & Paolo Guasoni & Eberhard Mayerhofer, 2022. "Informational efficiency and welfare," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 16, number 2, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:125088. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tsetofr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.