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Attempting to Quantify the Accuracy of Complex Macroeconomic Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Emilian Dobrescu

    (Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, NIER, Romanian Academy)

Abstract
Based on the 2012 Version of the Romanian Macromodel, the first section of this paper discusses the evolution of the Romanian economy in 2014. The previous simulations were revised taking into account the changes in the internal and external socio-economic conjuncture or in the available statistics. Starting from improved input- output tables, the Leontief matrix was recalculated, maintaining the ten-branch sectoral structure. Some accommodated exogenous parameters and expert corrective coefficients were also incorporated, according to the modified context in which the Romanian economy was effectively developing during this period. The second section examines the forecast accuracy problem for the case of a complex economic macromodel. The methodological considerations are doubled by an illustrative application, comparing the previous projections for 2014 with the last preliminary data. The third section presents the main predictive estimates for 2015, commented in correlation with the official prognosis. Some concluding remarks are synthetized in the fourth section of the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilian Dobrescu, 2014. "Attempting to Quantify the Accuracy of Complex Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-21, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2014:i:4:p:5-21
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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_14/rjef4_2014p5-21.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2017. "Modelling an Emergent Economy and Parameter Instability Problem," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-28, June.
    2. Lucian Liviu ALBU & Carlos MatéJIMÉNEZ & Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2015. "The Assessment of Some Macroeconomic Forecasts for Spain using Aggregated Accuracy Indicators," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 30-47, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macromodel; simulation; forecast accuracy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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