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How effective are social distancing policies? Evidence on the fight against COVID-19

Author

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  • Ulrich Glogowsky
  • Emanuel Hansen
  • Simeon Schächtele
Abstract
To fight the spread of COVID-19, many countries implemented social distancing policies. This is the first paper that examines the effects of the German social distancing policies on behavior and the epidemic’s spread. Exploiting the staggered timing of COVID-19 outbreaks in extended event-study models, we find that the policies heavily reduced mobility and contagion. In comparison to a no-social-distancing benchmark, within three weeks, the policies avoided 84% of the potential COVID-19 cases (point estimate: 499.3K) and 66% of the potential fatalities (5.4K). The policies’ relative effects were smaller for individuals above 60 and in rural areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Glogowsky & Emanuel Hansen & Simeon Schächtele, 2021. "How effective are social distancing policies? Evidence on the fight against COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-12, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0257363
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0257363
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    Cited by:

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    3. Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stephane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    4. Sabine Kuhlmann & Jochen Franzke & Benoît Paul Dumas, 2022. "Technocratic Decision-Making in Times of Crisis? The Use of Data for Scientific Policy Advice in Germany’s COVID-19 Management," Public Organization Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 269-289, June.
    5. Christian Alemán & Christopher Busch & Alexander Ludwig & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2022. "A Stage-Based Identification of Policy Effects," Working Papers 1369, Barcelona School of Economics.
    6. Etienne Farvaque & Hira Iqbal & Nicolas Ooghe, 2020. "Health politics? Determinants of US states’ reactions to COVID-19," Post-Print hal-03128875, HAL.
    7. Steffen Juranek & Floris T. Zoutman, 2021. "The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the demand for health care and on mortality: evidence from COVID-19 in Scandinavia," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1299-1320, October.
    8. Steffen Juranek & Jörg Paetzold & Hannes Winner & Floris Zoutman, 2021. "Labor market effects of COVID‐19 in Sweden and its neighbors: Evidence from administrative data," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 512-526, November.
    9. Bartscher, Alina Kristin & Seitz, Sebastian & Siegloch, Sebastian & Slotwinski, Michaela & Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2021. "Social capital and the spread of covid-19: Insights from european countries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Nicola Raimo & Pedro-José Martínez-Córdoba & Bernardino Benito & Filippo Vitolla, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Labor Market: An Analysis of Supply and Demand in the Spanish Municipalities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-12, November.
    11. Anne Marie Novak & Adi Katz & Michal Bitan & Shahar Lev-Ari, 2022. "The Association between the Sense of Coherence and the Self-Reported Adherence to Guidelines during the First Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Israel," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-13, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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