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The "Great Lockdown": Inactive Workers and Mortality by Covid-19

Author

Listed:
  • Nicola Borri
  • Francesco Drago
  • Chiara Santantonio
  • Francesco Sobbrio
Abstract
In response to the Covid-19 outbreak the Italian Government imposed an economic lockdown on March 22, 2020 and ordered the closing of all non-essential economic activities. This paper estimates the causal effects of this measure on mortality by Covid-19 and on mobility patterns. The identification of the causal effects exploits the variation in the active population across municipalities induced by the economic lockdown. The difference-in-differences empirical design compares outcomes in municipalities above and below the median variation in the share of active population before and after the lockdown within a province, also controlling for municipality-specific dynamics, daily-shocks at the provincial level and municipal unobserved characteristics. Our results show that the intensity of the economic lockdown is associated with a statistically significant reduction in mortality by Covid-19 and, in particular, for age groups between 40-64 and older (with larger and more significant effects for individuals above 50). Back of the envelope calculations indicate that 4,793 deaths were avoided, in the 26 days between April 5 to April 30, in the 3,518 municipalities which experienced a more intense lockdown. Several robustness checks corroborate our empirical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Borri & Francesco Drago & Chiara Santantonio & Francesco Sobbrio, 2020. "The "Great Lockdown": Inactive Workers and Mortality by Covid-19," CESifo Working Paper Series 8584, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8584
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "JUE insight: Learning epidemiology by doing: The empirical implications of a Spatial-SIR model with behavioral responses," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Guccio, Calogero, 2021. "Measuring resilience and fatality rate during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Northern Italy: a note," EconStor Preprints 231374, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; economic lockdown; excess deaths; mobility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General

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