Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/juecon/v132y2022ics0094119022000821.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Government Contracting, Labor Intensity, and the Local Effects of Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from the Budget Control Act of 2011

Author

Listed:
  • Komarek, Timothy M.
  • Butts, Kyle
  • Wagner, Gary A.
Abstract
The U.S. federal government awards billions of dollars of contracts annually to private-sector firms to produce a wide range of goods and services. However, little is known about how a reduction in federal procurement, also referred to as fiscal consolidation, impacts local labor markets. In this paper, we leverage the institutional details of the Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA) and highly detailed transaction-level data for procurement by all federal agencies to estimate the effect of fiscal consolidation on local employment and wages. Our identification strategy uses a shift-share instrument and is based on the exogeneity of the BCA-induced spending cuts across industries, i.e. exogenous shocks. Our results show that relative to wages, employment appears to be the key margin for local labor market adjustment in the wake of consolidation. In particular, we estimate that a $1 million reduction in federal procurement spending reduces employment by more than 10 jobs, while a $1 decline in spending only reduces aggregate wages by about $0.19. We also show that the local labor market effects of consolidation depend on the sectors receiving federal dollars. Federal contracts in high labor-intensive industries reduce employment by more than those in low labor-intensive industries, while the effect on aggregate wages is relatively modest and constant across sectors. These findings have implications both for understanding regional economic development and for improving regional resiliency to negative demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Komarek, Timothy M. & Butts, Kyle & Wagner, Gary A., 2022. "Government Contracting, Labor Intensity, and the Local Effects of Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from the Budget Control Act of 2011," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:132:y:2022:i:c:s0094119022000821
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2022.103506
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119022000821
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103506?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yellen, Janet L, 1984. "Efficiency Wage Models of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 200-205, May.
    2. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2019. "Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, May.
    3. Holden Steinar & Wulfsberg Fredrik, 2008. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the OECD," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-50, April.
    4. Elsby, Michael W.L., 2009. "Evaluating the economic significance of downward nominal wage rigidity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 154-169, March.
    5. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    6. Gerritse, Michiel & Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés, 2018. "Does federal contracting spur development? Federal contracts, income, output, and jobs in US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 121-135.
    7. Rodrigo Ad~ao & Michal Koles'ar & Eduardo Morales, 2018. "Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference," Papers 1806.07928, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    8. Regis Barnichon & Davide Debortoli & Christian Matthes, 2022. "Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s in the Sign," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 87-117.
    9. Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull & Xavier Jaravel, 2022. "Quasi-Experimental Shift-Share Research Designs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 181-213.
    10. Alan Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Daniel Murphy, 2020. "Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the USA," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 195-229, March.
    11. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    12. Ferreira, Fernando & Gyourko, Joseph & Tracy, Joseph, 2010. "Housing busts and household mobility," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 34-45, July.
    13. Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & José P. Vásquez, 2020. "Trade with Nominal Rigidities: Understanding the Unemployment and Welfare Effects of the China Shock," NBER Working Papers 27905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Agell, Jonas & Bennmarker, Helge, 2007. "Wage incentives and wage rigidity: A representative view from within," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 347-369, June.
    15. Bruce Fallick & Daniel Villar Vallenas & William L. Wascher, 2016. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the United States During and After the Great Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-001r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 15 May 2020.
    16. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    17. Cacciatore, Matteo & Duval, Romain & Furceri, Davide & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2021. "Fiscal multipliers and job-protection regulation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    18. Alan S. Blinder & Don H. Choi, 1990. "A Shred of Evidence on Theories of Wage Stickiness," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(4), pages 1003-1015.
    19. Peter Howitt, 2002. "Looking Inside the Labor Market: A Review Article," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 125-138, March.
    20. Bloze, Gintautas & Skak, Morten, 2016. "Housing equity, residential mobility and commuting," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 156-165.
    21. Holzer, Harry J & Montgomery, Edward B, 1993. "Asymmetries and Rigidities in Wage Adjustments by Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 397-408, August.
    22. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, November.
    23. Supreet Kaur, 2019. "Nominal Wage Rigidity in Village Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(10), pages 3585-3616, October.
    24. Emi Nakamura & J?n Steinsson, 2014. "Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from US Regions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 753-792, March.
    25. Rodrigo Adão & Michal Kolesár & Eduardo Morales, 2019. "Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 1949-2010.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Céline Poilly & Fabien Tripier, 2023. "Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers hal-04239322, HAL.
    2. Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull & Xavier Jaravel, 2023. "Design-Based Identification with Formula Instruments: A Review," NBER Working Papers 31393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Komarek, Timothy M. & Wagner, Gary A., 2020. "The distributional effects of job loss from fiscal consolidation: Evidence from the Budget Control Act of 2011," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    4. César, Andrés & Falcone, Guillermo & Gasparini, Leonardo, 2021. "Costs and benefits of trade shocks: Evidence from Chilean local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Zou, Yanchi, 2024. "The impact of fiscal stimulus on employment: Evidence from China’s four-trillion RMB package," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Blanas, Sotiris & Oikonomou, Rigas, 2023. "COVID-induced economic uncertainty, tasks and occupational demand," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2024. "Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    8. Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, 2024. "Granular Instrumental Variables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(7), pages 2274-2303.
    9. Bohnet, Lara & Peralta, Susana & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2022. "Cousins from Overseas: The Labour Market Impact of a Major Forced Return Migration Shock," IZA Discussion Papers 15595, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Kwon, Ohyun & Zhao, Hao & Zhao, Min Qiang, 2023. "Global firms and emissions: Investigating the dual channels of emissions abatement," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    11. Elliott Ash & Massimo Morelli & Matia Vannoni, 2022. "More Laws, More Growth? Evidence from U.S. States," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22178, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    12. Stemmler, Henry, 2023. "Automated Deindustrialization: How Global Robotization Affects Emerging Economies—Evidence from Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    13. Cavallini, Flavia, 2024. "Not the right time for children: Unemployment, fertility, and abortion," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    14. Eggenberger, Christian & Janssen, Simon & Backes-Gellner, Uschi, 2022. "The value of specific skills under shock: High risks and high returns," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Brad Hershbein & Bryan A. Stuart, 2024. "The Evolution of Local Labor Markets after Recessions," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 399-435, July.
    16. Büchler, Simon & Ehrlich, Maximilian v. & Schöni, Olivier, 2021. "The amplifying effect of capitalization rates on housing supply," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    17. Magli, Martina, 2022. "The spillover effect of services offshoring on local labour markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118048, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Mattia Filomena & Matteo Picchio & Alessia Lo Turco, 2024. "Trade exposure, immigrants and workplace injuries," Working Papers 488, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    19. Endoh, Masahiro, 2023. "The China shock and job reallocation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    20. Korn, Tobias, 2023. "The Persistent Consequences of Civil Conflict: Evidence from a New Measure for Subnational Conflict Exposure," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-711, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Federal contracting; Urban development; Local labor market; Job displacement; Wage rigidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:132:y:2022:i:c:s0094119022000821. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622905 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.