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Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand

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  • Kilian, Lutz
  • Zhou, Xiaoqing
Abstract
We propose a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices. These differences, which are primarily driven by variation in the cost of producing and distributing gasoline, create cross-sectional dispersion in gasoline price growth in response to an aggregate oil price shock. We find that the elasticity was stable near -0.3 until the end of 2014, but subsequently rose to about -0.2. Our estimates inform the recent debate about gasoline-tax holidays and policies to reduce carbon emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand," CFS Working Paper Series 685, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:685
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. M. Adam & O. Bonnet & E. Fize & T. Loisel & M. Rault & L. Wilner, 2023. "How does fuel demand respond to price changes? Quasi-experimental evidence based on high-frequency data," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers 2023-17, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    3. Grigolon, Laura & Park, Eunseong & Remmy, Kevin, 2024. "Fueling electrification: The impact of gas prices on hybrid car usage," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-017, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    4. Odran Bonnet & Étienne Fize & Tristan Loisel & Lionel Wilner, 2024. "Is Carbon Tax Truly More Salient? Evidence from Fuel Tourism at the France-Germany Border," CESifo Working Paper Series 10918, CESifo.
    5. Odran Bonnet & Étienne Fize & Tristan Loisel & Lionel Wilner, 2024. "Is Carbon Tax Truly More Salient? Evidence from Fuel Tourism at the France-Germany Border," CESifo Working Paper Series 10918, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price elasticity of gasoline demand; pass-through; gasoline tax; gasoline supply; identification; IV; cross-section;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy

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