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The impact of the rise and collapse of Japan's housing price bubble on households’ lifetime utility

Author

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  • Niizeki, Takeshi
  • Suga, Fumihiko
Abstract
This study estimates the impact of the dramatic changes in housing prices during Japan's bubble from the late 1980s to the 1990s on households’ asset accumulation and utility over their life cycle. We construct a life-cycle model explaining households’ consumption/saving and housing decisions under collateral and borrowing constraints. We estimate this model using data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), which includes data on households’ housing wealth estimated from objective information. Using the estimated model, we then conduct a counterfactual simulation in which we assume that housing prices remained constant during the bubble period. Doing so allows us to quantify the gains/losses of lifetime utility due to the housing price boom and bust. We find that 72.2% of the households experienced an average decrease in lifetime utility equivalent to 5.7% of lifetime income. On average, Japan's housing price boom and bust caused a loss in lifetime utility equivalent to 4.7% of lifetime income. Moreover, we compare the impact of the housing price bubble across cohorts and find that the impact was greatest for those who experienced the bubble at ages 35–45.

Suggested Citation

  • Niizeki, Takeshi & Suga, Fumihiko, 2021. "The impact of the rise and collapse of Japan's housing price bubble on households’ lifetime utility," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:60:y:2021:i:c:s0889158321000150
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2021.101136
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Bubbles; Housing;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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