Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v136y2022ics0022199622000150.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can sticky portfolios explain international capital flows and asset prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Bacchetta, Philippe
  • Davenport, Margaret
  • van Wincoop, Eric
Abstract
Recently portfolio choice has become an important element of many DSGE open economy models. Yet, a substantial body of evidence is inconsistent with standard frictionless portfolio choice models. In this paper we introduce a quadratic cost of changes in portfolio allocation into a two-country DSGE model. We investigate the level of portfolio frictions most consistent with the data and the impact of portfolio frictions on asset prices and net capital flows. We find the portfolio friction accounts for (i) micro evidence of portfolio inertia by households, (ii) macro evidence of the price impact of financial shocks and related disconnect of asset prices from fundamentals, (iii) a broad set of moments related to the time series behavior of saving, investment and net capital flows, and (iv) other phenomena relating to excess return dynamics. Financial and saving shocks each account for close to half of the variance of net capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Bacchetta, Philippe & Davenport, Margaret & van Wincoop, Eric, 2022. "Can sticky portfolios explain international capital flows and asset prices?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:136:y:2022:i:c:s0022199622000150
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103583
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199622000150
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103583?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel & Stephen Utkus, 2021. "Five Facts about Beliefs and Portfolios," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1481-1522, May.
    2. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2021. "Puzzling exchange rate dynamics and delayed portfolio adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions when Expected Returns are Time Varying," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 433-495.
    4. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    5. Evans, Martin D.D. & Hnatkovska, Viktoria V., 2014. "International capital flows, returns and world financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 14-33.
    6. Lim, Bryan Y. & Wang, Jiaguo (George) & Yao, Yaqiong, 2018. "Time-series momentum in nearly 100 years of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 283-296.
    7. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2010. "Country portfolio dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1325-1342, July.
    8. Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2002. "The 6D Bias and the Equity-Premium Puzzle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 257-330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2016. "When bonds matter: Home bias in goods and assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 119-137.
    10. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2010. "International capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 157-175, March.
    11. Fink, Josef, 2021. "A review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    12. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2021. "Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(8), pages 2183-2232.
    13. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    14. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2016. "When bonds matter: Home bias in goods and assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 119-137.
    15. Yannis Bilias & Dimitris Georgarakos & Michael Haliassos, 2010. "Portfolio Inertia and Stock Market Fluctuations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 715-742, June.
    16. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    17. Bonaparte, Yosef & Cooper, Russell & Zhu, Guozhong, 2012. "Consumption smoothing and portfolio rebalancing: The effects of adjustment costs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 751-768.
    18. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
    19. Davis, J. Scott & Van Wincoop, Eric, 2018. "Globalization and the increasing correlation between capital inflows and outflows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 83-100.
    20. He, Hua & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 919-972.
    21. Gabaix, Xavier & Koijen, Ralph, 2021. "In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 16290, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2019. "A Demand System Approach to Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1475-1515.
    23. Spiegel, Matthew & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1992. "Informed Speculation and Hedging in a Noncompetitive Securities Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 307-329.
    24. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G Hanson & Gordon Y Liao, 2018. "Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(9), pages 3307-3343.
    25. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop & Eric R Young, 2023. "Infrequent Random Portfolio Decisions in an Open Economy Model," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(3), pages 1125-1154.
    26. Andrei, Daniel & Mann, William & Moyen, Nathalie, 2019. "Why did the q theory of investment start working?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 251-272.
    27. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 11-66, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 529-546.
    29. Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-168, February.
    30. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
    31. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5glg8brs7n87c8vqcn2qok0961 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Lynch, Anthony W, 1996. "Decision Frequency and Synchronization across Agents: Implications for Aggregate Consumption and Equity Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1479-1497, September.
    33. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June.
    34. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein & Adi Sunderam, 2020. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 27615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "The Research Agenda: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas on Global Imbalances and Financial Factors," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), April.
    36. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel, 2008. "Do Wealth Fluctuations Generate Time-Varying Risk Aversion? Micro-evidence on Individuals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 713-736, June.
    37. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Portfolio Choice Choice in an Open Economy Macro Model," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 491-499, 04-05.
    38. Evans, Martin D.D. & Hnatkovska, Viktoria, 2012. "A method for solving general equilibrium models with incomplete markets and many financial assets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1909-1930.
    39. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly & Stavros Panageas, 2007. "Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 244-249, May.
    40. Bohn, Henning & Tesar, Linda L, 1996. "U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 77-81, May.
    41. Vincent Bogousslavsky, 2016. "Infrequent Rebalancing, Return Autocorrelation, and Seasonality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(6), pages 2967-3006, December.
    42. Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.
    43. Darrell Duffie, 2010. "Presidential Address: Asset Price Dynamics with Slow‐Moving Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1237-1267, August.
    44. Gomme, Paul & Rupert, Peter, 2007. "Theory, measurement and calibration of macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 460-497, March.
    45. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2014. "International capital flows under dispersed private information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 31-49.
    46. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Goldberg, Linda S. & Krogstrup, Signe, 2023. "International capital flow pressures and global factors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Gautam Milind Gokhale & Ankur Mittal, 2024. "Exploring the Nexus of Capital Market and Investor Behaviour: A Systematic Literature Review," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 65-76, March.
    3. Nelson Camanho & Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2022. "Global Portfolio Rebalancing and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 5228-5274.
    4. Zehri, Chokri, 2022. "Asymmetric impact of capital controls on international trade," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    5. Rong Li & Dongzhou Mei & Bing Tong, 2024. "Gradual Portfolio Adjustment, Foreign Exchange Intervention, and Open Market Operations," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2024/6, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    6. Eyquem, Aurélien & Poilly, Céline & Belianska, Anna, 2023. "On portfolio frictions, asset returns and volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2021. "Puzzling exchange rate dynamics and delayed portfolio adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2017. "Gradual Portfolio Adjustment: Implications for Global Equity Portfolios and Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 11983, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Bacchetta, Philippe & Tièche, Simon & van Wincoop, Eric, 2020. "International Portfolio Choice with Frictions: Evidence from Mutual Funds," CEPR Discussion Papers 14898, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Devereux, Michael B. & Saito, Makoto & Yu, Changhua, 2020. "International capital flows, portfolio composition, and the stability of external imbalances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Adams, Jonathan J. & Barrett, Philip, 2021. "Why are countries’ asset portfolios exposed to nominal exchange rates?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    6. Gao Meng & Eric Wincoop, 2020. "A Decomposition of International Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 362-389, June.
    7. Albuquerque, Rui & Miao, Jianjun, 2014. "Advance information and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 236-275.
    8. Nelson Camanho & Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2022. "Global Portfolio Rebalancing and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 5228-5274.
    9. Rabitsch, Katrin & Stepanchuk, Serhiy & Tsyrennikov, Viktor, 2015. "International portfolios: A comparison of solution methods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 404-422.
    10. Cao, Dan & Evans, Martin & Lua, Wenlan, 2020. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics Beyond Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 99054, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Mar 2020.
    11. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2010. "Valuation effects and the dynamics of net external assets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 129-143, January.
    12. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2014. "International capital flows under dispersed private information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 31-49.
    13. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    14. Evans, Martin D.D. & Hnatkovska, Viktoria V., 2014. "International capital flows, returns and world financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 14-33.
    15. Philippe Bacchetta, 2017. "Slow Moving Capital: Evidence from Global Equity Portfolios," 2017 Meeting Papers 1166, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Ghironi, Fabio & Lee, Jaewoo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2015. "The valuation channel of external adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 86-114.
    17. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    18. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2014. "Solving DSGE portfolio choice models with dispersed private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-24.
    19. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2011. "Expectations, Liquidity, and Short-term Trading," CESifo Working Paper Series 3390, CESifo.
    20. Marianne Andries & Valentin Haddad, 2020. "Information Aversion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(5), pages 1901-1939.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:136:y:2022:i:c:s0022199622000150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.