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International capital flows under dispersed private information

Author

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  • Tille, Cédric
  • van Wincoop, Eric
Abstract
It is well established that private information is critical to our understanding of asset prices. In this paper we argue that it also affects international capital flows and use a simple two-country DSGE model to illustrate its impact. We show that private information (i) increases the volatility of both net and gross capital flows, (ii) leads to a high correlation between capital inflows and outflows, (iii) leads to a disconnect of capital flows from observed macro fundamentals and (iv) implies that capital flows contain information about the future macro fundamentals. We also show that dispersed information affects capital flows both through asset prices and directly, so that the impact on flows is not just the mirror image of the impact on prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2014. "International capital flows under dispersed private information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 31-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:93:y:2014:i:1:p:31-49
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.02.003
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    Cited by:

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    2. Iliopulos, Eleni & Perego, Erica & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2021. "International business cycles: Information matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 19-34.
    3. Malmendier, Ulrike & Pouzo, Demian & Vanasco, Victoria, 2020. "Investor experiences and international capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    4. Bacchetta, Philippe & Tièche, Simon & van Wincoop, Eric, 2020. "International Portfolio Choice with Frictions: Evidence from Mutual Funds," CEPR Discussion Papers 14898, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Benhima, Kenza & Cordonier, Rachel, 2022. "News, sentiment and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2017. "Gradual Portfolio Adjustment: Implications for Global Equity Portfolios and Returns," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 17.05, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    7. Özmen, Erdal & Taşdemir, Fatma, 2021. "Gross capital inflows and outflows: Twins or distant cousins?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    8. Davis, J. Scott & Van Wincoop, Eric, 2018. "Globalization and the increasing correlation between capital inflows and outflows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 83-100.
    9. Feng, Chaonan & Han, Liyan & Vigne, Samuel & Xu, Yang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Gyntelberg, Jacob & Loretan, Mico & Subhanij, Tientip, 2018. "Private information, capital flows, and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 40-55.
    11. Bacchetta, Philippe & Davenport, Margaret & van Wincoop, Eric, 2022. "Can sticky portfolios explain international capital flows and asset prices?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    12. Wang, Yabin, 2018. "Fickle capital flows and retrenchment: Evidence from bilateral banking data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-21.
    13. Gao Meng & Eric Wincoop, 2020. "A Decomposition of International Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 362-389, June.
    14. Bonam, Dennis & Goy, Gavin, 2019. "Home biased expectations and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 25-42.
    15. Opperman, Pieter & Adjasi, Charles Komla Delali, 2017. "The determinants of private capital flow volatility in Sub-Saharan African countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 312-320.
    16. Philippe Bacchetta, 2017. "Slow Moving Capital: Evidence from Global Equity Portfolios," 2017 Meeting Papers 1166, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International capital flows; Information dispersion; Dynamic general equilibrium model; Endogenous portfolio choice;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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