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Energy markets volatility modelling using GARCH

Author

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  • Efimova, Olga
  • Serletis, Apostolos
Abstract
This paper investigates the empirical properties of oil, natural gas, and electricity price volatilities using a range of univariate and multivariate GARCH models and daily data from wholesale markets in the United States for the period from 2001 to 2013. The key contribution to the literature is the estimation of trivariate BEKK and DCC models that allow us to observe spillovers and interactions among energy markets. We evaluate and compare the performance of univariate and multivariate models with a range of diagnostic and forecast performance tests, and assess forecasting performance and conditional correlation dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Efimova, Olga & Serletis, Apostolos, 2014. "Energy markets volatility modelling using GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 264-273.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:43:y:2014:i:c:p:264-273
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.02.018
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil; Natural gas; Electricity; Volatility; Trivariate VARMA; GARCH-in-mean model; Asymmetric BEKK model; DCC model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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