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Financial development, unemployment volatility, and sectoral dynamics

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  • Epstein, Brendan
  • Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan
Abstract
We document a negative and significant relationship between domestic financial development and unemployment volatility in developing and emerging economies (DEMEs) and the absence of such relationship in advanced economies (AEs). A business cycle labor search model with firm heterogeneity, collateral constraints, and interfirm input credit capital can quantitatively rationalize these facts. Greater financial development is associated with lower usage of input credit capital, greater bank credit, and greater capital accumulation, all of which make firms more resilient in the presence of financial shocks. Firms’ increased shock resiliency stabilizes employment decisions, ultimately leading to smoother unemployment fluctuations. Then, by establishing explicit linkages between firms, interfirm input credit acts as an important mechanism that fosters lower volatility across firms under greater financial development. As such, increases in financial development have a smaller impact in stabilizing unemployment in economies with higher average bank credit-GDP ratios and less input credit usage, which is the case of AEs, compared to economies with lower average bank-credit GDP ratios and more input credit usage, which is the case of DEMEs.

Suggested Citation

  • Epstein, Brendan & Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan, 2019. "Financial development, unemployment volatility, and sectoral dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 82-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:99:y:2019:i:c:p:82-102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2018.11.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Brendan Epstein & Alan Finkelstein Shapiro, 2021. "Increasing Domestic Financial Participation: Implications for Business Cycles and Labor Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 128-145, January.
    2. Henda Omri & Anis Omri & Abdessalem Abbassi, 2024. "Macro-level determinants of entrepreneurial behavior and motivation," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 2629-2667, December.
    3. Epstein, Brendan & Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan, 2017. "Banking and Financial Participation Reforms, Labor Markets, and Financial Shocks," MPRA Paper 88697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sheilla Nyasha & Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Mercy T. Musakwa, 2021. "The Impact of Stock Market Development on Unemployment: Empirical Evidence from South Africa," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 71(1-2), pages 92-110, January-J.
    5. S. Nyasha & N.M. Odhiambo & M.T. Musakwa, 2021. "The Impact of Stock Market Development on Unemployment: Empirical Evidence from South Africa," Working Papers AESRI-2021-17, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Jul 2021.
    6. Epstein, Brendan & Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Gonzalez Gomez, Andres, 2018. "Global Financial Risk, Domestic Financial Access, and Unemployment Dynamics," MPRA Paper 88692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & González Gómez, Andrés, 2017. "Credit market imperfections, labor markets, and leverage dynamics in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 44-63.
    8. Tang, Chun & Liu, Xiaoxing & Zhou, Donghai, 2022. "Financial market resilience and financial development: A global perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Yılmaz Bayar & Murat Gündüz & Funda H. Sezgin, 2019. "Banking Sector Instability and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 7(2), pages 263-274, December.
    10. Alan Finkelstein Shapiro & Brendan Epstein, 2018. "Banking and Financial Access Reforms, Labor Markets, and Financial Shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 2, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Ekkehard Ernst, 2019. "Finance and Jobs: How Financial Markets and Prudential Regulation Shape Unemployment Dynamics," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, January.
    12. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan, 2018. "Labor force participation, interest rate shocks, and unemployment dynamics in emerging economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 346-374.
    13. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Su, Thanh Dinh, 2021. "Easing economic vulnerability: Multidimensional evidence of financial development," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 237-252.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Financial development; Financial frictions; Unemployment; Search frictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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