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Trade and currency weapons

Author

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  • Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré
  • Matthieu Bussière
  • Pauline Wibaux
Abstract
The debate on trade and currency wars has reemerged since the Global Financial Crisis. We study the two forms of noncooperative policies within a single framework. First, we compare the elasticity of trade flows to import tariffs and to the real exchange rate, based on product‐level data for 110 countries over the 1989–2013 period. We find that a 1% depreciation of the importer's currency reduces imports by around 0.5% in current dollar, whereas an increase in import tariffs by 1 percentage point reduces imports by around 1.4%. Hence, the two instruments are not equivalent. Second, we build a stylized short‐term macroeconomic model where the government aims at internal and external balance. We find that, in this setting, monetary policy is more stabilizing for the economy than trade policy. One implication is that, in normal times, a country will more likely react to a trade “aggression” through monetary easing rather than through a tariff increase. However, both instruments are (imperfect) substitutes in the short term, when only one of them is available.

Suggested Citation

  • Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Matthieu Bussière & Pauline Wibaux, 2021. "Trade and currency weapons," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 487-510, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:29:y:2021:i:3:p:487-510
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12517
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    2. Jeanne, Olivier & Son, Jeongwon, 2012. "To what extent are tariffs offset by exchange rates?," Economics Working Paper Archive 66656, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    3. Thorbecke, Willem & Chen, Chen & Salike, Nimesh, 2021. "China’s exports in a protectionist world," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Thorbecke, Willem & Salike, Nimesh & Chen, Chen, 2022. "The impact of exchange rate changes on the Japanese chemical industry," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Stéphane Auray & Devereux Michael B. & Aurélien Eyquem, 2020. "Trade Wars, Currency Wars," Post-Print halshs-03031833, HAL.
    6. Angella Faith Montfaucon, 2022. "Invoicing Currency and Symmetric Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Tariffs: Evidence from Malawian Imports from the EU," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 191-207.
    7. Thorbecke, Willem, 2019. "East Asian value chains, exchange rates, and regional exchange rate arrangements," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Willem THORBECKE & CHEN Chen & Nimesh SALIKE, 2024. "Do Traditional Models or the Dominant Currency Paradigm Explain China’s Export Behavior?," Discussion papers 24062, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Willem THORBECKE & Nimesh SALIKE & CHEN Chen, 2020. "Product Complexity, Exports, and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Japanese Chemical Industry," Discussion papers 20085, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Chen Chen & Nimesh Salike & Willem Thorbecke, 2023. "Exchange rate effects on China's exports: Product sophistication and exchange rate elasticity," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 371-400, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

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