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Monetary Regime Switches and Central Bank Preferences

Author

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  • DAVIDE DEBORTOLI
  • RICARDO NUNES
Abstract
Monetary policy objectives and targets are not necessarily constant over time. The regime‐switching literature has typically analyzed and interpreted changes in policymakers' behavior through simple interest rate rules. This paper analyzes policy regime switches by explicitly modeling policymakers' behavior and objectives. We show that changes in the parameters of simple rules do not necessarily correspond to changes in policymakers' preferences. In fact, capturing and interpreting regime changes in preferences through interest rate rules can lead to misleading results.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes, 2014. "Monetary Regime Switches and Central Bank Preferences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1591-1626, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:46:y:2014:i:8:p:1591-1626
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12160
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    11. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2021. "Hopf Bifurcation From New-Keynesian Taylor Rule To Ramsey Optimal Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(8), pages 2204-2236, December.
    12. Best, Gabriela, 2017. "Policy Preferences And Policy Makers' Beliefs: The Great Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(8), pages 1957-1995, December.
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    14. Anindya S. Chakrabarti & Sudarshan Kumar, 2020. "A computational algorithm to analyze unobserved sequential reactions of the central banks: inference on complex lead–lag relationship in evolution of policy stances," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 33-54, April.
    15. Davide Debortoli & Aeimit Lakdawala, 2016. "How Credible Is the Federal Reserve? A Structural Estimation of Policy Re-optimizations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 42-76, July.
    16. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2018. "The Indeterminacy of Determinacy with Fiscal, Macro-prudential or Taylor Rules," Working Papers halshs-01877766, HAL.
    17. Troy Davig, 2016. "Phillips Curve Instability and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 233-246, February.
    18. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2016. "Changes in Federal Reserve preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 124-143.
    19. Best, Gabriela & Hur, Joonyoung, 2019. "Bad luck, bad policy, and learning? A Markov-switching approach to understanding postwar U.S. macroeconomic dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 55-78.
    20. Chakrabarti, Anindya S. & Kumar, Sudarshan, 2019. "A computational algorithm to analyze unobserved sequential reactions of the central banks: Inference on complex lead-lag relationship in evolution of policy stances," IIMA Working Papers WP 2019-06-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    21. Cheolbeom Park & Sookyung Park, 2022. "Tracking a central banker's preference: A nonparametric regression approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 291-307, January.
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    23. Cheolbeom Park & Sookyung Park, 2020. "Reading a central banker's preference: A non parametric regression approach," Discussion Paper Series 2007, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
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