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Forecasting and Policy Making

In: Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Wieland, Volker
  • Wolters, Maik
Abstract
Policymakers use forecasts to project the consequences of particular policy decisions for certain policy targets. This chapter investigates the use of economic forecasting in policy making by discussing practical examples, providing new empirical evidence and computing forecasts using different macroeconomic models. First, a theoretical framework is presented to differentiate the role of forecasts in simple feedback rules, optimal control policies, and forecast targeting. Then, we review institutional details of the forecasting process at fiscal authorities and central banks. We provide empirical evidence that central bank policy rate decisions in the United States and the Euro area are well described by interest rate rules responding to forecasts of inflation and economic activity rather than recent outcomes. Next, we provide a detailed exposition of methods for producing forecasts. We review forecasting models and provide practical applications. In particular, we illustrate how to use economic structure in interpreting forecasts and how to implement different conditioning assumptions regarding certain planned policy initiatives. Finally, we evaluate the accuracy of central bank and expert forecasts and investigate the interaction between forecasting and policy making by evaluating the performance and robustness of forecast-based policy rules under model uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofch:2-239
    DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-444-53683-9.00005-0
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    2. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    3. Wieland, Volker & Binder, Michael & Lieberknecht, Philipp & Quintana, Jorge, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Macroeconomics: On the Implications of Financial Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 12013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; DSGE models; Conditional forecasts; Policy rules; Expectations; Business cycles; Robust policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A33 - General Economics and Teaching - - Multisubject Collective Works - - - Handbooks
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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