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Group Average Treatment Effects for Observational Studies

Author

Listed:
  • Jacob, Daniel
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  • Lessmann, Stefan
Abstract
The paper proposes an estimator to make inference of heterogeneous treatment effects sorted by impact groups (GATES) for non-randomised experiments. Observational studies are standard in policy evaluation from labour markets, educational surveys and other empirical studies. To control for a potential selection-bias we implement a doubly-robust estimator in the first stage. Keeping the flexibility, we can use any machine learning method to learn the conditional mean functions as well as the propensity score. We also use machine learning methods to learn a function for the conditional average treatment effect. The group average treatment effect, is then estimated via a parametric linear model to provide p-values and confidence intervals. To control for confounding in the linear model we use Neyman-orthogonal moments to partial out the effect that covariates have on both, the treatment assignment and the outcome. The result is a best linear predictor for effect heterogeneity based on impact groups. We introduce inclusion-probability weighting as a form of cross-splitting and averaging for each observation to avoid biases through sample splitting. The advantage of the proposed method is a robust linear estimation of heterogeneous group treatment effects in observational studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob, Daniel & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Lessmann, Stefan, 2019. "Group Average Treatment Effects for Observational Studies," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-028, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2019028
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/230804/1/irtg1792dp2019-028.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Schulz, Rainer & Xie, Taojun, 2019. "Cooling Measures and Housing Wealth: Evidence from Singapore," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-001, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    2. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2018. "Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-68, February.
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    5. Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Fernández‐Val & Ye Luo, 2018. "The Sorted Effects Method: Discovering Heterogeneous Effects Beyond Their Averages," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 1911-1938, November.
    6. Junjie Hu & Wolfgang Karl Hardle & Weiyu Kuo, 2019. "Risk of Bitcoin Market: Volatility, Jumps, and Forecasts," Papers 1912.05228, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    7. Michael Zimmert & Michael Lechner, 2019. "Nonparametric estimation of causal heterogeneity under high-dimensional confounding," Papers 1908.08779, arXiv.org.
    8. Haupt, Johannes & Jacob, Daniel & Gubela, Robin M. & Lessmann, Stefan, 2019. "Affordable Uplift: Supervised Randomization in Controlled Exprtiments," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-026, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    9. Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Després, Roméo & Guo, Li & Renault, Thomas, 2019. "What makes cryptocurrencies special? Investor sentiment and return predictability during the bubble," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-016, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    10. Victor Chernozhukov & Vira Semenova, 2018. "Simultaneous inference for Best Linear Predictor of the Conditional Average Treatment Effect and other structural functions," CeMMAP working papers CWP40/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    11. Daniel Jacob, 2019. "Group Average Treatment Effects for Observational Studies," Papers 1911.02688, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    12. Wesselhöfft, Niels & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2019. "Estimating low sampling frequency risk measure by high-frequency data," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-003, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    13. Mihoci, Andrija & Althof, Michael & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2019. "FRM Financial Risk Meter," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-021, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    14. Keilbar, Georg & Wang, Weining, 2019. "Modelling Systemic Risk Using Neural Network Quantile Regression," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-019, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    15. Guo, Li & Tao, Yubo & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2019. "Dynamic Network Perspective of Cryptocurrencies," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-009, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    16. Kolesnikova, A. & Yang, Y. & Lessmann, S. & Ma, T. & Sung, M.-C. & Johnson, J.E.V., 2019. "Can Deep Learning Predict Risky Retail Investors? A Case Study in Financial Risk Behavior Forecasting," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-023, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vira Semenova & Matt Goldman & Victor Chernozhukov & Matt Taddy, 2023. "Inference on heterogeneous treatment effects in high‐dimensional dynamic panels under weak dependence," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 471-510, May.
    2. Michael C Knaus, 2022. "Double machine learning-based programme evaluation under unconfoundedness [Econometric methods for program evaluation]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(3), pages 602-627.
    3. Paul B. Ellickson & Wreetabrata Kar & James C. Reeder, 2023. "Estimating Marketing Component Effects: Double Machine Learning from Targeted Digital Promotions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(4), pages 704-728, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    causal inference; machine learning; simulation study; confidence intervals; multiple splitting; sorted group ATE (GATES); doubly-robust estimator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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