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Should the ECB adjust its strategy in the face of a lower r*?

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Andrade
  • Jordi Galí
  • Hervé Le Bihan
  • Julien Matheron
Abstract
We address this question using an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model of the Euro Area with trend inflation, imperfect indexation, and a lower bound on the nominal interest rate. In this setup, a decrease in the steady-state real interest rate, r*, increases the probability of hitting the lower bound constraint, which entails signiï¬ cant welfare costs and warrants an adjustment of the monetary policy strategy. Under an unchanged monetary policy rule, an increase in the inflation target of eight tenth the size of the drop in the real natural rate of interest is warranted. Absent an increase in the inflation target, and assuming the effective lower bound prevents the ECB from implementing more aggressive negative interest rate policies, adjusting the monetary strategy requires considering alternative instruments or policy rules, such as committing to make-up for recent, below-target inflation realizations.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Andrade & Jordi Galí & Hervé Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2021. "Should the ECB adjust its strategy in the face of a lower r*?," Economics Working Papers 1767, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1767
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    11. Gerke, Rafael & Kienzler, Daniel & Scheer, Alexander, 2022. "On the macroeconomic effects of reinvestments in asset purchase programmes," Discussion Papers 47/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    14. Kollmann, Robert & Lubik, Thomas & Roeger, Werner, 2021. "Secular Stagnation, Low Interest Rates and Low Inflation: Causes and Implications for Policy," MPRA Paper 108979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    17. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2022, Bank of Finland.
    18. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Research Discussion Papers 6/2022, Bank of Finland.
    19. Abbritti, Mirko & Consolo, Agostino & Weber, Sebastian, 2021. "Endogenous growth, downward wage rigidity and optimal inflation," Working Paper Series 2635, European Central Bank.
    20. Herzog, Bodo, 2023. "How credible is average and symmetric inflation targeting in an episode of high inflation?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1750-1761.
    21. Lucian Briciu & Stefan Hohberger & Luca Onorante & Beatrice Pataracchia & Marco Ratto & Lukas Vogel, 2023. "The ECB Strategy Review - Implications for the Space of Monetary Policy," European Economy - Discussion Papers 193, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation target; effective lower bound; monetary policy strategy; euro-area.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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