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Exchange Rate Asymmetry and Flexible Exchange Rates under Inflation Targeting Regimes: Evidence from Four East and Southeast Asian Countries

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  • Pontines, Victor
  • Siregar, Reza Y.
Abstract
We demonstrate that the economies of Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand, which are among the first group of emerging markets to embrace the inflation targeting framework of monetary policy, tend to adopt a form of an asymmetrical exchange rate behaviour wherein appreciation pressures are restrained more substantially than depreciation pressures. In short, these four Asian economies exemplify aversion to appreciations such that greater flexibility is allowed only one side of the market. Formal econometric tests using the smooth transition autoregressive and the Markov regime switching models confirm this hypothesis of aversion to appreciation and show that the central banks of these four economies tend to tolerate more of depreciations than of appreciations of their local currencies against the US dollar.

Suggested Citation

  • Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza Y., 2010. "Exchange Rate Asymmetry and Flexible Exchange Rates under Inflation Targeting Regimes: Evidence from Four East and Southeast Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 25260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25260
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Borkhuu Gotovsuren & Tsenddorj Dorjpurev, 2012. "Financial Contagion and Volatile Capital Flows," Occasional Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number occ56, April.
    2. M, Ramachandran & Maheswari, D., 2022. "Asymmetry in forex market intervention: Does it reflect fear of reserve inadequacy?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    3. Pontines, Victor, 2015. "How useful is an Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index for surveillance in East Asia?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 269-287.
    4. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Ytallo Brito, 2021. "The link between public debt and investment: an empirical assessment from emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(50), pages 5864-5876, October.
    5. Ahmet Benlialper & Hasan Cömert & Nadir Öcal, 2017. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Policy in Inflation Targeting Developing Countries," ERC Working Papers 1702, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Feb 2017.
    6. Haryo Kuncoro, 2020. "Interest Rate Policy and Exchange Rates Volatility Lessons from Indonesia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(2), pages 19-42.
    7. Shiu‐Sheng Chen & Jen‐Kuan Wang, 2022. "Detecting persistent one‐sided intervention in foreign exchange markets: A simple test," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 23-45, April.
    8. Vincent C.S. Lim & Victor Pontines, 2012. "Global Imbalances: A Primer," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp86, April.
    9. Libman, Emiliano, 2017. "Asymmetric Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Latin America," MPRA Paper 78864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Alberto Botta, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of a Financial Dutch Disease," DEM Working Papers Series 089, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    11. Park, Ki Young & Kim, Soohyon, 2019. "Detecting currency manipulation: An application of a state-space model with Markov switching," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 50-60.
    12. Victor Pontines & Richard Pomfret, 2014. "Exchange rate policy and regional trade agreements: a case of conflicted interests?," Chapters, in: Richard Baldwin & Masahiro Kawai & Ganeshan Wignaraja (ed.), A World Trade Organization for the 21st Century, chapter 7, pages 157-181, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Keefe, Helena Glebocki & Shadmani, Hedieh, 2018. "Foreign exchange market intervention and asymmetric preferences," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 148-163.
    14. Libman, Emiliano, 2018. "Asymmetric monetary and exchange-rate policies in Latin American countries that use inflation targeting," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Asymmetry Inflation Targeting; Fear of Floating; Fear of Appreciation; Regime Switching Models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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