Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eab/financ/23713.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate Policy and Regional Trade Agreements : A Case of Conflicted Interests?

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Pomfret

    (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI))

  • Victor Pontines
Abstract
The results highlight the conflicting interests of countries — to stabilize exchange rates or to keep the option of exchange rate depreciation in order to maintain competitiveness of domestic tradable producers. With deepening integration in East Asia, however, the desire for exchange rate stability will eventually outweigh the desire to maintain a protectionist tool. How extensive the pressures will be in East Asia will depend not only on how many countries seriously desire to be in the more integrated economic area in which Factory Asia operates, but also on their institutional and political readiness to commit in such schemes at the cost of renouncing an important policy instrument.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Pomfret & Victor Pontines, 2013. "Exchange Rate Policy and Regional Trade Agreements : A Case of Conflicted Interests?," Finance Working Papers 23713, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:eab:financ:23713
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/23713
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Irwin, Douglas A., 2010. "The Slide to Protectionism in the Great Depression: Who Succumbed and Why?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 871-897, December.
    2. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza Y., 2012. "Fear of appreciation in East and Southeast Asia: The role of the Chinese renminbi," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 324-334.
    3. Caporale, Tony & Doroodian, Khosrow, 1994. "Exchange rate variability and the flow of international trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 49-54, September.
    4. Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2011. "Management of Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Asia," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23214, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    5. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    6. Victor Pontines & Reza Y. Siregar, 2012. "Exchange Rate Asymmetry and Flexible Exchange Rates under Inflation Targeting Regimes: Evidence from Four East and Southeast Asian Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(5), pages 893-908, November.
    7. Bird, Graham & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2006. "The political economy of sequencing: Monetary versus trade regionalism," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 335-341, December.
    8. Arvind Subramanian, 2011. "Renminbi Rules: The Conditional Imminence of the Reserve Currency Transition," Working Paper Series WP11-14, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10221 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Haddad, Mona & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2010. "Can Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation Boost Exports and Growth in Developing Countries? Yes, But Not for Long," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 20, pages 1-5, June.
    11. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012634, April.
    12. Pontines, Victor, 2015. "How useful is an Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index for surveillance in East Asia?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 269-287.
    13. Tenreyro, Silvana, 2007. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 485-508, March.
    14. Robert C. Johnson & Guillermo Noguera, 2012. "Fragmentation and Trade in Value Added over Four Decades," NBER Working Papers 18186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December.
    16. Ogawa, Eiji & Ito, Takatoshi, 2002. "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-334, September.
    17. Richard Baldwin, 2011. "Trade And Industrialisation After Globalisation's 2nd Unbundling: How Building And Joining A Supply Chain Are Different And Why It Matters," NBER Working Papers 17716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    19. Aaditya Mattoo & Arvind Subramanian, 2009. "Currency Undervaluation and Sovereign Wealth Funds: A New Role for the World Trade Organization," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(8), pages 1135-1164, August.
    20. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2009. "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes? Theory, Empirics and Aggregate Implications," Working Papers 2009-32, CEPII research center.
    21. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Kimura, Fukunari, 2009. "The effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade in East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 395-406, December.
    22. Marilyne Huchet & J. Korinek, 2011. "To what extent do exchange rates and their volatility affect trade ?," Post-Print hal-00729403, HAL.
    23. Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2012. "Export surges," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 387-395.
    24. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    25. Myint Moe Chit & Amrit Judge, 2011. "Non-linear effect of exchange rate volatility on exports: the role of financial sector development in emerging East Asian economies," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 107-119.
    26. Thorbecke, Willem, 2008. "The effect of exchange rate volatility on fragmentation in East Asia: Evidence from the electronics industry," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 535-544, December.
    27. Caprio, Gerard (ed.), 2012. "Handbook of Safeguarding Global Financial Stability," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123978752.
    28. Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, February.
    29. Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195101133.
    30. Arize, Augustine C. & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J., 2008. "Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 33-44.
    31. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    32. Richard Pomfret, 1991. "What is the Secret of the EMS's Longevity?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(6), pages 623-633, December.
    33. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/10221 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michel, 2011. "The relationship between exchange rates and International Trade: A review of economic literature," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-17, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    35. Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Asia," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Emerging Asia, chapter 4, pages 22-25, Palgrave Macmillan.
    36. Weber, Sebastian & Wyplosz, Charles, 2009. "Exchange rates during the crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5059, The World Bank.
    37. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, August.
    38. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    39. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 577-605, July.
    40. Pontines, Victor & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2011. "Foreign exchange market intervention and reserve accumulation in emerging Asia: Is there evidence of fear of appreciation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 252-255, June.
    41. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2007. "United States‐China Trade At The Commodity Level And The Yuan‐Dollar Exchange Rate," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(3), pages 341-361, July.
    42. Pomfret, Richard, 1989. "The Economics of Voluntary Export Restraint Agreements," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 199-211.
    43. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    44. Bruno Coric & Geoff Pugh, 2010. "The effects of exchange rate variability on international trade: a meta-regression analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(20), pages 2631-2644.
    45. Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), 2012. "Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14414.
    46. Keith E. Maskus, 1986. "Exchange rate risk and U.S. trade: a sectoral analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 71(Mar), pages 16-28.
    47. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
    48. Christian Broda & John Romalis, 2011. "Identifying the Relationship Between Trade and Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, pages 79-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 577-605, July.
    2. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michel, 2011. "The relationship between exchange rates and International Trade: A review of economic literature," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-17, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    3. Khee Giap Tan & Luu Nguyen Trieu Duong & Hui Yin Chuah, 2019. "Impact of exchange rates on ASEAN's trade in the era of global value chains: An empirical assessment," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(7), pages 873-901, October.
    4. Enzo Cassino & David Oxley, 2013. "How Does the Exchange Rate Affect the Real Economy? A Literature Survey," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/26, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. Mekbib Gebretsadik Haile & Geoff Pugh, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility discourage international trade? A meta-regression analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 321-350, April.
    6. Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon & Jane Korinek, 2011. "To What Extent Do Exchange Rates and their Volatility Affect Trade?," OECD Trade Policy Papers 119, OECD Publishing.
    7. Cueyt SEVIM & Taylan Taner DOGAN, 2016. "Turkiye Ekonomisinde Ihracat ve Doviz Kuru Oynakligi Iliskisi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 16(2), pages 303-318.
    8. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua, 2014. "Effect of exchange rate volatility on industry trade flows between Malaysia and China," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 626-655, August.
    9. Nishimura, Yusaku & Hirayama, Kenjiro, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 90-101.
    10. Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Rubi Ahmad & Izlin Ismail, 2016. "Exchange-rate variability and industry trade flows between Malaysia and Japan," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 453-478, June.
    11. Yusaku Nishimura & Bianxia Sun, 2018. "China’s Exchange-Rate Regime Reform and Trade Between China and the Eurozone," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 450-467, January.
    12. Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Naveed Akhter Katper, 2017. "Exchange-rate volatility and Malaysian-Thai bilateral industry trade flows," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(1), pages 99-114, January.
    13. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    14. Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt & Paula Andrea Mosquera Agudelo, 2021. "The impacts of the exchange rate volatility on colombian trade with its main trade partners," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 18(2), pages 57-81, Julio-Dic.
    15. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua & Abdul Fatah Che Hamat, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility and ASEAN-4’s trade flows: is there a third country effect?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 91-117, January.
    16. Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, February.
    17. Shu Lin & Kang Shi & Haichun Ye, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and trade: The role of credit constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 203-222, October.
    18. James Temitope Dada, 2020. "Asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on trade in sub-Saharan African countries," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(2), pages 149-162, July.
    19. Ricardo A. López & Huong D. Nguyen, 2015. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Imports of Intermediate Inputs: A Microeconometric Analysis of Manufacturing Plants," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 972-995, November.
    20. Sandro Steinbach, 2021. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Global Food Supply Chains," NBER Chapters, in: Risks in Agricultural Supply Chains, pages 59-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional Trade Agreements; exchange rate policy; East Asia; exchange rate stability; domestic tradeable producers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:financ:23713. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shiro Armstrong (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaberau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.