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Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries

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  • Jahjah, Samir
  • Wei, Bin
  • Yue, Zhanwei
Abstract
This paper empirically analyzes how exchange rate policy affects the issuance and pricing of international bonds for developing countries. We find that countries with less flexible exchange rate regimes pay higher sovereign bond spreads and are less likely to issue bonds. Quantitatively, changing a free-floating regime to a fixed regime decreases the likelihood of bond issuance by 4.6% and increases the bond spread by 1.3% on average. Furthermore, countries with real exchange rate overvaluation have higher bond spreads and higher bond issuance probabilities. Moreover, such positive effects of real exchange rate overvaluation tend to be magnified for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. Our results suggest that choosing a less flexible exchange rate regime in general leads to higher borrowing costs for developing countries, especially when their currencies are overvalued.

Suggested Citation

  • Jahjah, Samir & Wei, Bin & Yue, Zhanwei, 2013. "Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 74924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74924
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign Bond Spread; Exchange Rate Regime; Overvaluation; Debt Crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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