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External Liabilities and Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Luis Catão
  • Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
Abstract
We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970-2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities (NFL) to GDP is a significant crisis predictor, and the more so when it exceeds 50 percent in absolute terms and 20 percent of the country-specific historical mean. This is primarily due to net external debt--the effect of net equity liabilities is weaker and net FDI liabilities seem if anything an offset factor. We also find that: i) breaking down net external debt into its gross asset and liability counterparts does not add significant explanatory power to crisis prediction; ii) the current account is a powerful predictor, either measured unconditionally or as deviations from conventionally estimated “norms” iii) foreign exchange reserves reduce the likelihood of crisis more than other foreign asset holdings; iv) a parsimonious probit containing those and a handful of other variables has good predictive performance in- and out-of-sample. The latter result stems largely from our focus on external crises stricto sensu.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Luis Catão & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2013. "External Liabilities and Crises," IMF Working Papers 2013/113, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/113
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; GDP; crisis risk; International Investment Positions; Sovereign Debt; Currency Crises; Current Account Imbalances; Foreign Exchange Reserves; crisis definition; GDP coefficient; FDI liability; crisis probability; Current account; Foreign direct investment; Current account balance; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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