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The New-Keynesian Liquidity Trap

Author

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  • John H. Cochrane
Abstract
In standard solutions, the new-Keynesian model produces a deep recession with deflation in a liquidity trap. The model also makes unusual policy predictions: Useless government spending, technical regress, and capital destruction have large multipliers. These predictions become larger as prices become less sticky. I show that both sets of predictions are strongly affected by equilibrium selection. For the same interest-rate path, different choices of equilibria - either by the researcher's direct selection or the researcher's specification of expected Federal Reserve policy - can overturn all these results. A set of "local-to-frictionless" equilibria predicts mild inflation, no output reduction and negative multipliers during the liquidity trap, and its predictions approach the frictionless model smoothly, all for the same interest rate path.

Suggested Citation

  • John H. Cochrane, 2013. "The New-Keynesian Liquidity Trap," NBER Working Papers 19476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19476
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fiscal Stimulus: Old Keynesian vs. New Keynesian
      by paragwaknis in Musings of the Sorts on 2013-11-17 22:54:51

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    Cited by:

    1. Cochrane, John H., 2017. "The new-Keynesian liquidity trap," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-63.
    2. S Borağan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Frank Schorfheide, 2018. "Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB: A Tale of Two Countries," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 87-118.
    3. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
    4. Jeffrey R. Campbell, 2014. "Quantitative Easing in Joseph's Egypt with Keynesian Producers," Working Paper Series WP-2014-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. Adiya Belgibayeva & Michal Horvath, 2015. "Optimal Conventional Stabilization Policy in a Liquidity Trap When Wages and Prices are Sticky," Discussion Papers 15/11, Department of Economics, University of York.
    6. repec:cbh:journl:v:14:y:2015:i:1:p:111-138 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Chattopadhyay, Siddhartha & Daniel, Betty C., 2014. "The Inflation Target at the Zero Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 66096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Rendahl, Pontus, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in an Unemployment Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9992, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2017. "The Liquidity-Augmented Model of Macroeconomic Aggregates," Discussion Papers dp17-16, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    10. Gerhard Illing & Thomas Siemsen, 2014. "Forward Guidance in a Simple Model with a Zero Lower Bound," CESifo Working Paper Series 4702, CESifo.
    11. Siddartha Chattopadhyay & Betty C. Daniel, 2018. "Taylor-Rule Exit Policies for the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 1-53, December.
    12. Dupor, Bill & Li, Rong, 2015. "The expected inflation channel of government spending in the postwar U.S," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 36-56.
    13. Marius Brülhart & Didier Dupertuis & Elodie Moreau, 2018. "Inheritance flows in Switzerland, 1911–2011," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-13, December.
    14. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2018. "Real Keynesian Models and Sticky Prices," 2018 Meeting Papers 61, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Roberto Piazza, 2015. "Deflation expectations and Japan's lost decade," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 274, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Gerhard Illing & Thomas Siemsen, 2016. "Forward Guidance at the Zero Lower Bound in a Model of Price-Level Targeting," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(1), pages 47-67.
    17. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolf, Martin, 2016. "Deleveraging, deflation and depreciation in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 42-66.
    18. João Braz Pinto & João Sousa Andrade, 2015. "A Monetary Analysis of the Liquidity Trap," GEMF Working Papers 2015-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    19. Jordan Roulleau‐Pasdeloup, 2018. "The Government Spending Multiplier in a (Mis)Managed Liquidity Trap," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 293-315, March.
    20. Piazza, Roberto, 2016. "Self-fulfilling deflations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 18-40.
    21. Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup & Anastasia Zhutova, 2015. "Labor Market Policies and the "Missing Deflation" Puzzle: Lessons from Hoover Policies during the U.S Great Depression," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 15.05, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    22. Dániel Horváth & Róbert Szini, 2015. "The safety trap – the financial market and macroeconomic consequences of the scarcity of safe assets," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 14(1), pages 111-138.
    23. Goy, Gavin & Hommes, Cars & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2022. "Forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1240-1274.
    24. Fernando M. Duarte & Anna Zabai, 2015. "An interest rate rule to uniquely implement the optimal equilibrium in a liquidity trap," Staff Reports 745, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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