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Fiscal multipliers in advanced and developing countries: evidence from military spending

Author

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  • Viacheslav Sheremirov
  • Sandra Spirovska
Abstract
Using novel data on military spending for 129 countries in the period 1988?2013, this paper provides new evidence on the effects of government spending on output in advanced and developing countries. Identifying government-spending shocks with an exogenous variation in military spending, we estimate one-year fiscal multipliers in the range 0.75-0.85. The cumulative multipliers remain significantly different from zero within three years after the shock. We find substantial heterogeneity in the multipliers across groups of countries. We then explore three potential sources leading to heterogeneous effects of fiscal policy: the state of the economy, openness to trade, and the exchange-rate regime. We find that the multipliers are especially large in recessions, in closed economies, and under a fixed exchange rate. We also discuss other potential reasons for heterogeneous effects of fiscal policy, such as its implementation and coordination with the monetary authority. This paper is a significantly revised and extended version of Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Working Papers No. 15-9, circulated under the title ?Output Response to Government Spending: Evidence from New International Military Spending Data.?

Suggested Citation

  • Viacheslav Sheremirov & Sandra Spirovska, 2019. "Fiscal multipliers in advanced and developing countries: evidence from military spending," Working Papers 19-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:19-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Danzer, Alexander M. & Danzer, Natalia & Feuerbaum, Carsten, 2023. "Military Spending and Innovation: Learning from 19th Century World Fair Exhibition Data," IZA Discussion Papers 16034, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Olejnik, Łukasz Wiktor, 2023. "Short-run multiplier effects of military expenditures in NATO's Eastern Flank countries in 1999–2021," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1344-1355.
    3. Stojanovikj, Martin, 2022. "Government size, inflation targeting and business cycle volatility," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-12.
    4. Lwazi Senzo Ntshangase & Thando Ngozo, 2024. "Quantifying Fiscal Multipliers in South Africa: A Structural Var Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 16(2), pages 45-55.
    5. Lukasz Wiktor Olejnik, 2023. "Economic growth and military expenditure in the countries on NATOʼs Eastern flank in 1999–2021," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2023-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 May 2023.
    6. Han, Haozhe & Zhang, Shuo, 2023. "How does people’s liberation army related business closure affect the local economy?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Hyungsuk Lee & Junsang Lee, 2024. "Accounting for the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates through Markup Dynamics," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 106(2), pages 129-145, April.
    8. Rabia Rafique & Asad Nisar & Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah, 2024. "Testing the effects of fiscal policy shocks on output growth in recession and expansion: empirical evidence from developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-26, June.
    9. Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah & Muhammad Asim Afridi, 2023. "Cyclical variation of fiscal multipliers in Caucasus and Central Asia economies: an empirical evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4531-4563, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; military spending; multiplier;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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