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New Evidence on the Dynamic Wage Curve for Western Germany: 1980-2004

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Abstract
Blanchflower and Oswald (1994) reported that they have found an 'empirical law of economics'--the Wage Curve. Our paper reconsiders the western German Wage Curve using disaggregated regional data and is based on almost one million employees drawn from the Federal Employment Services of Germany over the eriod 1980-2004. We find that the wage equation is highly autoregressive but far from unit root. The unemployment elasticity is significant but relatively small: only between -0.02 and -0.04. We also check the sensitivity of this elasticity for different population groups (young versus old, men versus women, less educated versus highly educated, German native versus foreigner), confirming that it is stronger the weaker the bargaining power of the particular group.

Suggested Citation

  • Badi H. Baltagi & Uwe Blien & Katja Wolf, 2008. "New Evidence on the Dynamic Wage Curve for Western Germany: 1980-2004," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 103, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    • Handle: RePEc:max:cprwps:103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2005. "The Wage Curve Reloaded," IZA Discussion Papers 1665, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, April.
    3. Markus Pannenberg & Johannes Schwarze, 2000. "Wage Dynamics and Unemployment in Germany: Evidence from Regional Panel Data," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 14(4), pages 645-655, December.
    4. Ammermüller, Andreas & Lucifora, Claudio & Origo, Federica & Zwick, Thomas, 2007. "Still searching for the wage curve: evidence from Germany and Italy," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-008, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2005. "The Last Word on the Wage Curve?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 421-450, July.
    6. Víctor M. Montuenga‐Gómez & José M. Ramos‐Parreño, 2005. "Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 735-765, December.
    7. Lutz Bellmann & Uwe Blien, 2001. "Wage Curve Analyses of Establishment Data from Western Germany," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 54(4), pages 851-863, July.
    8. repec:fth:prinin:343 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Robert J. Flanagan, 1999. "Macroeconomic Performance and Collective Bargaining: An International Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 1150-1175, September.
    10. David Card, 1995. "The Wage Curve: A Review," Working Papers 722, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    11. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
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    13. David Card, 1995. "The Wage Curve: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 285-299, June.
    14. Bell, Brian & Nickell, Stephen & Quintini, Glenda, 2002. "Wage equations, wage curves and all that," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 341-360, July.
    15. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
    16. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Estimating a Wage Curve for Britain: 1973-90," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1025-1043, September.
    17. Thiess Buettner, 1999. "The effect of unemployment, aggregate wages, and spatial contiguity on local wages: An investigation with German district level data," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 78(1), pages 47-67.
    18. Wagner, Joachim, 1994. "German wage curves, 1979-1990," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 307-311.
    19. Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe, 1998. "The German wage curve: evidence from the IAB employment sample," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 135-142, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wage curve; regional labor markets; Phillips curve; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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