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Closing Routes to Retirement: How Do People Respond?

Author

Listed:
  • Geyer, Johannes

    (DIW Berlin)

  • Welteke, Clara

    (Bundesministerium der Finanzen)

Abstract
We present quasi-experimental evidence on the employment effects of an unprecedented large increase in the early retirement age (ERA). Raising the ERA has the potential to extend contribution periods and to reduce the number of pension beneficiaries at the same time, if employment exits are successfully delayed. However, workers may not be able to work longer or may choose other social support programs as exit routes from employment. We study the effects of the ERA increase on employment and potential program substitution in a regression-discontinuity framework. Germany abolished an important early retirement program for women born after 1951, effectively raising the ERA for women by three years. We analyze the effects of this huge increase on employment, unemployment, disability pensions, and inactivity rates. Our results suggest that the reform increased both employment and unemployment rates of women age 60 and over. However, we do not find evidence for active program substitution from employment into alternative social support programs. Instead employed women remained employed and unemployed women remained unemployed. The results suggest an increase in inequality within the affected cohorts.

Suggested Citation

  • Geyer, Johannes & Welteke, Clara, 2017. "Closing Routes to Retirement: How Do People Respond?," IZA Discussion Papers 10681, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10681
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Todd Morris, 2022. "Re-examining female labor supply responses to the 1994 Australian pension reform," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 419-445, June.
    2. Engels, Barbara & Geyer, Johannes & Haan, Peter, 2017. "Pension incentives and early retirement," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 216-231.
    3. Zwick, Thomas & Bruns, Mona & Geyer, Johannes & Lorenz, Svenja, 2022. "Early retirement of employees in demanding jobs: Evidence from a German pension reform," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    4. Geyer, Johannes & Haan, Peter & Hammerschmid, Anna & Peters, Michael, 2020. "Labor Market and Distributional Effects of an Increase in the Retirement Age," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Kruse, Herman & Myhre, Andreas, 2021. "Early Retirement Provision for Elderly Displaced Workers," MPRA Paper 118689, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Sep 2023.
    6. Pfister, Mona & Lorenz, Svenja & Zwick, Thomas, 2018. "Calculation of pension entitlements in the sample of integrated labour market biographies (SIAB)," FDZ Methodenreport 201801_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Konle-Seidl, Regina, 2017. "Retention and re-integration of older workers into the labour market: What works?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201717, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    8. Lorenz, Svenja & Zwick, Thomas & Bruns, Mona, 2022. "Beware of the employer: Financial incentives for employees may fail to prolong old-age employment," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    9. Chiara Ardito, 2017. "Rising pension age in Italy: Employment response and Program substitution," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 155, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    10. repec:iab:iabfme:201801(en is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Dolls, Mathias & Krolage, Carla, 2019. "The Effects of Early Retirement Incentives on Retirement Decisions," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203486, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Lorenz, Svenja & Pfister, Mona & Zwick, Thomas, 2018. "Identification of the statutory retirement dates in the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB)," FDZ Methodenreport 201808_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    13. Cristiano Antonelli, 2017. "The Engines of the Creative Response: Reactivity and Knowledge Governance," Economía: teoría y práctica, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México, vol. 47(2), pages 9-30, Julio-Dic.
    14. Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Kurz, Elisabeth & Weinhardt, Felix Julian, 2021. "Working life and human capital investment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114422, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Aart‐Jan Riekhoff & Kati Kuitto & Liisa‐Maria Palomäki, 2020. "Substitution and spill‐overs between early exit pathways in times of extending working lives in Europe," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(2), pages 27-50, April.
    16. Fischer, Björn & Müller, Kai-Uwe, 2020. "Time to care? The effects of retirement on informal care provision," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Kruse, Herman & Myhre, Andreas, 2021. "Early Retirement Provision for Elderly Displaced Workers," MPRA Paper 109431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. repec:iab:iabfme:201808(en is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Kurz, Elisabeth & Weinhardt, Felix, 2020. "Working Life and Human Capital Investment: Causal Evidence from Pension Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 12891, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Vigtel, Trond Christian, 2018. "The retirement age and the hiring of senior workers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 247-270.
    21. Songül Tolan, 2017. "The Effect of Partial Retirement on Labor Supply, Public Balances and the Income Distribution: Evidence from a Structural Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1679, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    22. Niklas Gohl & Peter Haan & Elisabeth Kurz & Felix Weinhardt, 2021. "Working life and human capital investment," CEP Discussion Papers dp1753, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    retirement age; early retirement; regression discontinuity; pension reform; unemployment; labor supply; disability pension;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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