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Impacts from Delaying Access to Retirement Benefits on Welfare Receipt and Expenditure: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

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  • Umut Oguzoglu
  • Cain Polidano
  • Ha Vu
Abstract
Governments are responding to fiscal pressures associated with ageing populations by increasing the eligibility age for publicly funded retirement benefits. However, recent studies show large resulting increases in the receipt of disability and unemployment benefits, which raises concern that welfare savings are offset by increased inflows into alternative payments. Using administrative data to examine the impacts of female eligibility age increases in Australia, we find little evidence of this. Instead, most of the increase is because the delay mechanically extends the receipt time of people already on alternative payments. The implication is that fiscal savings are not jeopardised by welfare substitution.

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  • Umut Oguzoglu & Cain Polidano & Ha Vu, 2020. "Impacts from Delaying Access to Retirement Benefits on Welfare Receipt and Expenditure: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(312), pages 65-86, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:96:y:2020:i:312:p:65-86
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-4932.12521
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    1. Nguyen, Ha Trong & Mitrou, Francis & Taylor, Catherine L. & Zubrick, Stephen R., 2020. "Does retirement lead to life satisfaction? Causal evidence from fixed effect instrumental variable models," GLO Discussion Paper Series 536, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Riphahn, Regina T. & Schrader, Rebecca, 2023. "Reforms of an early retirement pathway in Germany and their labor market effects," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 304-330, July.
    3. Geyer, Johannes & Haan, Peter & Hammerschmid, Anna & Peters, Michael, 2020. "Labor Market and Distributional Effects of an Increase in the Retirement Age," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Nguyen, Ha Trong & Mitrou, Francis & Zubrick, Stephen R., 2024. "Retirement, housing mobility, downsizing and neighbourhood quality - A causal investigation," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Todd Morris, 2022. "Re-examining female labor supply responses to the 1994 Australian pension reform," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 419-445, June.
    6. Andrew E Clark & Rong Zhu, 2024. "Taking Back Control? Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Impact of Retirement on Locus of Control," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(660), pages 1465-1493.
    7. Zhu, Rong & Onur, Ilke, 2023. "Does retirement (really) increase informal caregiving? Quasi-experimental evidence from Australia," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    8. Manuel Serrano‐Alarcón & Chiara Ardito & Roberto Leombruni & Alexander Kentikelenis & Angelo d’Errico & Anna Odone & Giuseppe Costa & David Stuckler & IWGRH, 2023. "Health and labor market effects of an unanticipated rise in retirement age. Evidence from the 2012 Italian pension reform," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(12), pages 2745-2767, December.
    9. Zwick, Thomas & Bruns, Mona & Geyer, Johannes & Lorenz, Svenja, 2022. "Early retirement of employees in demanding jobs: Evidence from a German pension reform," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    10. Johannes Geyer & Clara Welteke, 2017. "Closing Routes to Retirement: How Do People Respond?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1653, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Todd Morris, 2022. "The unequal burden of retirement reform: Evidence from Australia," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 592-619, April.
    12. Mohamed Ebeid & Umut Oguzoglu, 2023. "Short‐term effect of retirement on health: Evidence from nonparametric fuzzy regression discontinuity design," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1323-1343, June.
    13. Bocong Yuan & Jiachun Fang & Jiannan Li & Fei Peng, 2022. "Chronic patients as retirement-aged workers: the impact of employment-based health insurance and chronic conditions on health-related working capacity and late-life career participation," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1351-1362, December.
    14. Ardito Chiara, 2021. "The unequal impact of raising the retirement age: Employment response and program substitution," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-37, January.
    15. Welteke, Clara & Geyer, Johannes & Haan, Peter, 2016. "Early retirement eligibility and employment behavior: evidence from a cohort based pension reform," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145783, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Elisa Birch & Alison Preston, 2021. "Women, COVID-19 and Superannuation," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 24(2), pages 175-198.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General

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