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Long-term bank lending and the transfer of aggregate risk

Author

Listed:
  • Reiter, Michael

    (IHS, Vienna and NYU Abu Dhabi)

  • Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold

    (Vienna Graduate School of Economics and IHS, Vienna)

Abstract
Long-term debt contracts transfer aggregate risk from borrowing firms to lending banks. When aggregate shocks increase the future default probability of firms, banks are not compensated for the default risk of existing contracts. If banks are highly leveraged, this can lead to financial instability with severe repercussions in the real economy. To study this mechanism quantitatively, we build a macroeconomic model of financial intermediation with long-term defaultable loan contracts and calibrate it to match aggregate firm and bank exposure to business cycle risks. Our model exhibits banking crises that closely resemble observed crisis episodes. We find that such crises do not arise in an economy with short-term debt. Our results on the role of long-term debt completely reverse if financial regulation is implemented to increase banks' risk bearing capacity. The financial sector is then well equipped to take on the aggregate risk, such that long-term lending stabilizes the business cycle by providing insurance to the corporate sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Reiter, Michael & Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold, 2020. "Long-term bank lending and the transfer of aggregate risk," IHS Working Paper Series 13, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihswps:13
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    File URL: https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/5285/
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    1. Reiter, Michael & Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold, 2023. "Long-term bank lending and the transfer of aggregate risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking; Financial frictions; Maturity transformation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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