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Banks, Money, and the Zero Lower Bound on Deposit Rates

Author

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  • Michael Kumhof

    (Bank of England)

  • Xuan Wang

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract
We develop a New Keynesian model where all payments between agents require bank deposits through deposits-in-advance constraints, bank deposits are created through disbursement of bank loans, and banks face a convex lending cost. At the zero lower bound on deposit rates (ZLBD), changes in policy rates affect activity through both real interest rates and banks’ net interest margins (NIM). At estimated credit supply elasticities, the Phillips curve is very flat at the ZLBD, because inflationary pressures increase NIM. This strongly increases credit and thereby output, but it dampens inflation by relaxing price setters’ credit rationing constraint. At the ZLBD, monetary policy has far larger effects on output relative to inflation, and Taylor rules stabilize output less effectively than rules that also respond to credit. For post-COVID-19 policy, this suggests urgency in returning inflation to targets, avoidance of negative policy rates, and a strong influence of credit conditions on rate setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Kumhof & Xuan Wang, 2020. "Banks, Money, and the Zero Lower Bound on Deposit Rates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-050/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20200050
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    3. Jakab, Zoltan & Kumhof, Michael, 2018. "Banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds — facts, theory and evidence," Bank of England working papers 761, Bank of England, revised 17 Jan 2020.
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    5. Goodhart, Charles & Kabiri, Ali, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Bank Profitability in a Low Interest Rate Environment: A Follow-up and a Rejoinder," CEPR Discussion Papers 13752, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    10. Horst, Maximilian & Neyer, Ulrike & Stempel, Daniel, 2020. "Asymmetric macroeconomic effects of QE-induced increases in excess reserves in a monetary union," DICE Discussion Papers 346, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    11. Goodhart, Charles A.E. & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P. & Wang, Xuan, 2023. "Bank credit, inflation, and default risks over an infinite horizon," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Jorien Freriks & Jan Kakes, 2021. "Bank interest rate margins in a negative interest rate environment," Working Papers 721, DNB.
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    14. Cynthia Balloch & Yann Koby & Mauricio Ulate, 2022. "Making Sense of Negative Nominal Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 2022-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    18. Kollmann, Robert & Lubik, Thomas & Roeger, Werner, 2021. "Secular Stagnation, Low Interest Rates and Low Inflation: Causes and Implications for Policy," MPRA Paper 108979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Kabiri, Ali, 2019. "Monetary policy and bank profitability in a low interest rate environment: a follow-up and a rejoinder," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100968, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Neyer, Ulrike & Stempel, Daniel, 2021. "Gender discrimination, inflation, and the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
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    22. Philipp Roderweis & Jamel Saadaoui & Francisco Serranito, 2023. "The Unintended Consequences of ECB’s Asset Purchases. How Excess Reserves Shape Bank Lending," Working Papers of BETA 2023-34, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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    5. Xuan Wang, 2021. "Bankruptcy Codes and Risk Sharing of Currency Unions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-009/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Xuan Wang, 2019. "When Do Currency Unions Benefit From Default ?," 2019 Papers pwa938, Job Market Papers.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; money creation; inside money; money demand; deposits-in-advance; Phillips curve; zero lower bound; monetary policy rules; Taylor rules; post-COVID-19 reforms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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