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Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Alichi
  • Hayk Avetisyan
  • Mr. Douglas Laxton
  • Shalva Mkhatrishvili
  • Armen Nurbekyan
  • Lusine Torosyan
  • Hou Wang
Abstract
This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause persistent damage (improvement) to the labor market, thereby reducing (increasing) potential output. Applying the model to U.S. data results in significantly smaller estimates of output gaps, and higher estimates of the NAIRU, after the global financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent deflation despite the slow recovery during 2010-2017. Going forward, if strong growth performance continues well beyond 2018, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Alichi & Hayk Avetisyan & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Armen Nurbekyan & Lusine Torosyan & Hou Wang, 2019. "Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis," IMF Working Papers 2019/035, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/035
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Augustus J. Panton, 2020. "Climate hysteresis and monetary policy," CAMA Working Papers 2020-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Davide Fantino & Sara Formai & Alessandro Mistretta, 2021. "Firm characteristics and potential output: a growth accounting approach," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 616, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Mr. Alvar Kangur & Koralai Kirabaeva & Jean-Marc Natal & Simon Voigts, 2019. "How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2019/200, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ms. Burcu Hacibedel & Pierre Mandon & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Nathalie Pouokam, 2019. "Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/020, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister & Mr. Harald Finger & Siddharth Kothari & Ms. Elena Loukoianova, 2020. "Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 2020/272, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Tóth, Máté, 2021. "A multivariate unobserved components model to estimate potential output in the euro area: a production function based approach," Working Paper Series 2523, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; NAIRU; Macroeconomic Modeling; Potential Output; output gap shock; unemployment gap; output gap estimate; Volcker recession; inflation target shock; output gap in the with-hysteresis model; inflation expectation; Output gap; Labor markets; Unemployment rate; Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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