Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/1950.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier J. Blanchard
  • Lawrence H. Summers
Abstract
European unemployment has been steadily increasing for the last 15 years and is expected to remain very high for many years to come. In this paper, we argue that this fact implies that shocks have much more persistent effects on unemployment than standard theories can possibly explain. We develop a theory which can explain such persistence, and which is based on the distinction between insiders and outsiders in wage bargaining. We argue that if wages are largely set by bargaining between insiders and firms, shocks which affect actual unemployment tend also to affect equilibrium unemployment. We then confront the theory to both the detailed facts of the European situation as well as to earlier periods of high persistent unemployment such as the Great Depression in the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Working Papers 1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1950
    Note: EFG ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1950.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-113, May.
    2. Weitzman, Martin L, 1982. "Increasing Returns and the Foundations of Unemployment Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 787-804, December.
    3. Bulow, Jeremy I & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "A Theory of Dual Labor Markets with Application to Industrial Policy,Discrimination, and Keynesian Unemployment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(3), pages 376-414, July.
    4. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
    5. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    6. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "Labour Force Participation: Timing and Persistence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(5), pages 825-844.
    7. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    8. Hall, Robert E., 1976. "The Phillips curve and macroeconomic policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 127-148, January.
    9. Oliver Hart, 1982. "A Model of Imperfect Competition with Keynesian Features," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 97(1), pages 109-138.
    10. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Valerie Cerra & Antonio Fatás & Sweta C. Saxena, 2023. "Hysteresis and Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 181-225, March.
    2. Russell Cooper & Andrew John, 2000. "Imperfect competition and macroeconomics : Theory and quantitative implications," Cahiers d'Économie Politique, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 289-328.
    3. Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 175-192, Spring.
    4. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
    5. Giakas, Konstantinos, 2023. "Hysteresis, financial frictions and monetary policy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    6. Sujit Kapadia, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Hysteresis," Economics Series Working Papers 250, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February.
    8. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-118, January.
    9. Kahn, James A. & Rich, Robert W., 2007. "Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1670-1701, September.
    10. Allan P. Layton, 1994. "Further on the Nature of the Australian Business Cycle," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(208), pages 12-18, March.
    11. Min, Chung-ki, 1998. "A Gibbs sampling approach to estimation and prediction of time-varying-parameter models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 171-194, April.
    12. Bennett, John & Dixon, Huw David, 1995. "Macroeconomic equilibrium and reform in a transitional economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1465-1485, October.
    13. Pierre Fortin, 2003. "Keynes resurrected," Cahiers de recherche du Département des sciences économiques, UQAM 20-21, Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques.
    14. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1994. "What Ends Recessions?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 13-80, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Greg Tkacz, 2000. "Fractional Cointegration and the Demand for M1," Staff Working Papers 00-12, Bank of Canada.
    16. Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A Markov switching regime model of the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 631-646, July.
    17. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    18. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2010. "Phillips Curves And Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique And A Holistic Perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-51, February.
    19. Dezhbakhsh, Hashem & Levy, Daniel, 2022. "Interpolation and shock persistence of prewar U.S. macroeconomic time series: A reconsideration," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 213.
    20. Anyikwa, Izunna & Hamman, Nicolene & Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Persistence of suicides in G20 countries: SPSM approach to three generations of unit root tests," MPRA Paper 87790, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1950. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.