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Earnings Shocks and Stabilization During COVID-19

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Abstract
This paper documents the magnitude and distribution of U.S. earnings changes during the COVID-19 pandemic and how fiscal relief offset lost earnings. We build panels from administrative tax data to measure annual earnings changes. The frequency of earnings declines during the pandemic were similar to the Great Recession, but the distribution was very different. In 2020, workers starting in the bottom half of the distribution were more likely to experience large annual earnings declines and a similar share of male and female workers had large earnings declines. While most workers experiencing large annual earnings declines do not receive unemployment insurance, over half of beneficiaries were made whole in 2020, as unemployment insurance replaced a median of 103 percent of their annual earnings declines. After incorporating unemployment insurance, the likelihood of large earnings declines among low-earning workers was not only smaller than during the Great Recession, but also smaller than in 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeff Larrimore & Jacob Mortenson & David Splinter, 2021. "Earnings Shocks and Stabilization During COVID-19," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-052, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-52
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2021.052
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert G. Valletta & Mary Yilma, 2024. "Enhanced Unemployment Insurance Benefits in the United States during COVID-19: Equity and Efficiency," Working Paper Series 2024-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Herzog-Stein, Alexander & Nüß, Patrick & Peede, Lennert & Stein, Ulrike, 2022. "Germany and the United States in coronavirus distress: internal versus external labour market flexibility," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 56, pages 1-11.
    3. Larrimore, Jeff & Mortenson, Jacob & Splinter, David, 2023. "Earnings business cycles: The Covid recession, recovery, and policy response," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    4. Maria Cotofan & Konstantinos Matakos, 2023. "Adapting or compounding? The effects of recurring labour shocks on stated and revealed preferences for redistribution," CEP Discussion Papers dp1957, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Cotofan, Maria & Matakos, Konstantinos, 2023. "Adapting or compounding? The effects of recurring labour shocks on stated and revealed preferences for redistribution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121297, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Elena Derby & Lucas Goodman & Kathleen Mackie & Jacob Mortenson, 2022. "Changes in Retirement Savings During the COVID Pandemic," Papers 2204.12359, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    7. Dennis J. Fixle & Marina Gindelsky & Robert Kornfeld, 2021. "The Feasibility of a Quarterly Distribution of Personal Income," BEA Working Papers 0191, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    8. Konstantins Benkovskis & Olegs Tkacevs & Karlis Vilerts, 2023. "Did Job Retention Schemes Save Jobs during the Covid-19 Pandemic? Firm-level Evidence from Latvia," Working Papers 2023/03, Latvijas Banka.
    9. Maribel Paredes-Torres & Ana del Rocío Cando-Zumba & José Varela-Aldás, 2022. "Income Tax for Microenterprises in the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study on Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, February.
    10. Jeff Larrimore & Jacob Mortenson & David Splinter, 2023. "Unemployment Insurance In Survey And Administrative Data," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 571-579, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Wage earnings; Stimulus checks; Unemployment insurance; Countercyclical policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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