(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)"> (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)">
Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/14440.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Presence and Persistence of Poverty in US Tax Data

In: Measuring Distribution and Mobility of Income and Wealth

Author

Listed:
  • Jeff Larrimore
  • Jake Mortenson
  • David Splinter
Abstract
This paper presents new estimates of the level and persistence of poverty among U.S. households since the Great Recession. We build annual household data files using U.S. income tax filings between 2007 and 2018. These data allow us to track individuals over time and measure how tax policies affect poverty trends. Using an after-tax household income measure, we estimate that while roughly 1 in 10 people are in poverty in any given year, over 4 in 10 people spent at least one year in poverty between 2007 and 2018. This implies substantial mobility in and out of poverty—for example, 41 percent of those in poverty in 2007 were out of poverty in the following year. Others spend multiple years in poverty or escape poverty only to fall back into it. Of those in poverty in 2007, one-third were in poverty for at least half of the years through 2018.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Jeff Larrimore & Jake Mortenson & David Splinter, 2020. "Presence and Persistence of Poverty in US Tax Data," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Distribution and Mobility of Income and Wealth, pages 383-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14440
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c14440.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Splinter, 2019. "Who Pays No Tax? The Declining Fraction Paying Income Taxes And Increasing Tax Progressivity," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(3), pages 413-426, July.
    2. John Fitzgerald & Peter Gottschalk & Robert Moffitt, 1998. "An Analysis of Sample Attrition in Panel Data: The Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(2), pages 251-299.
    3. Auten, Gerald & Gee, Geoffrey, 2009. "Income Mobility in the United States: New Evidence From Income Tax Data," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 62(2), pages 301-328, June.
    4. Jeff Larrimore & Jacob Mortenson & David Splinter, 2015. "Income and Earnings Mobility in U.S. Tax Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-61, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Tim Dowd & John B. Horowitz, 2011. "Income Mobility and the Earned Income Tax Credit," Public Finance Review, , vol. 39(5), pages 619-652, September.
    6. Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
    7. Randall Akee & Maggie R. Jones & Sonya R. Porter, 2019. "Race Matters: Income Shares, Income Inequality, and Income Mobility for All U.S. Races," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(3), pages 999-1021, June.
    8. Peter Gottschalk & Minh Huynh, 2010. "Are Earnings Inequality and Mobility Overstated? The Impact of Nonclassical Measurement Error," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 302-315, May.
    9. Bruce D. Meyer & Derek Wu & Victoria R. Mooers & Carla Medalia, 2019. "The Use and Misuse of Income Data and Extreme Poverty in the United States," NBER Working Papers 25907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jeff Larrimore & Richard V. Burkhauser & Philip Armour, 2015. "Accounting for Income Changes Over the Great Recession Relative to Previous Recessions: The Impact of Taxes and Transfers," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 68(2), pages 281-318, June.
    11. Besharov, Douglas J. & Couch, Kenneth A. (ed.), 2012. "Counting the Poor: New Thinking About European Poverty Measures and Lessons for the United States," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199860586.
    12. John M. Abowd & Martha H. Stinson, 2013. "Estimating Measurement Error in Annual Job Earnings: A Comparison of Survey and Administrative Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1451-1467, December.
    13. Burkhauser, Richard V. & Corinth, Kevin & Elwell, James & Larrimore, Jeff, 2019. "Evaluating the Success of President Johnson's War on Poverty: Revisiting the Historical Record Using a Full-Income Poverty Measure," IZA Discussion Papers 12855, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Richard V. Burkhauser & Kevin Corinth & James Elwell & Jeff Larrimore, 2019. "Evaluating the Success of President Johnson’s War on Poverty: Revisiting the Historical Record Using an Absolute Full-Income Poverty Measure," NBER Working Papers 26532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Jeff Larrimore & Jacob Mortenson & David Splinter, 2021. "Household Incomes in Tax Data: Using Addresses to Move from Tax-Unit to Household Income Distributions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 56(2), pages 600-631.
    16. Bruce D. Meyer & James X. Sullivan, 2012. "Winning the War: Poverty from the Great Society to the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 133-200.
    17. Ann Huff Stevens, 1999. "Climbing out of Poverty, Falling Back in: Measuring the Persistence of Poverty Over Multiple Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(3), pages 557-588.
    18. McCants, Anne EC, 2020. "The European Guilds: An Economic Analysis. By Sheilagh Ogilvie. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2019. Pp. xvi, 672. $39.95, cloth," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(1), pages 294-296, March.
    19. Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "The Distribution of Household Income, 2014," Reports 53597, Congressional Budget Office.
    20. Dynan Karen & Elmendorf Douglas & Sichel Daniel, 2012. "The Evolution of Household Income Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-42, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yonatan Berman, 2022. "Absolute intragenerational mobility in the United States, 1962–2014," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 587-609, September.
    2. Larrimore, Jeff & Mortenson, Jacob & Splinter, David, 2023. "Earnings business cycles: The Covid recession, recovery, and policy response," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    3. Mueller, Tom, 2020. "The poverty balancing equation: Expressing poverty of place as a population process," SocArXiv ws3gd, Center for Open Science.
    4. Maggie R. Jones & Adam Bee & Amanda Eng & Kendall Houghton & Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej & Sonya R. Porter & Jonathan Rothbaum & John Voorheis, 2024. "Mobility, Opportunity, and Volatility Statistics (MOVS): Infrastructure Files and Public Use Data," Working Papers 24-23, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Larrimore, Jeff & Mortenson, Jacob & Splinter, David, 2022. "Earnings shocks and stabilization during COVID-19," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    6. Ethan Krohn, 2024. "Earnings Through the Stages: Using Tax Data to Test for Sources of Error in CPS ASEC Earnings and Inequality Measures," Working Papers 24-52, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    7. Alessio Fusco & Philippe Van Kerm, 2023. "Measuring poverty persistence," Chapters, in: Jacques Silber (ed.), Research Handbook on Measuring Poverty and Deprivation, chapter 18, pages 192-200, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. David Splinter, 2022. "Income Mobility and Inequality: Adult‐Level Measures From the Us Tax Data Since 1979," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(4), pages 906-921, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Markus Jäntti & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2013. "Income Mobility," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 607, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    2. Bruce D. Meyer & Derek Wu & Grace Finley & Patrick Langetieg & Carla Medalia & Mark Payne & Alan Plumley, 2020. "The Accuracy of Tax Imputations: Estimating Tax Liabilities and Credits Using Linked Survey and Administrative Data," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Distribution and Mobility of Income and Wealth, pages 459-498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jeehoon Han & Bruce D. Meyer & James X. Sullivan, 2020. "Income and Poverty in the COVID-19 Pandemic," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 85-118.
    4. Robert Moffitt & Sisi Zhang, 2018. "Income Volatility and the PSID: Past Research and New Results," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 277-280, May.
    5. Robert Moffitt & Sisi Zhang, 2018. "The PSID and Income Volatility: Its Record of Seminal Research and Some New Findings," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 680(1), pages 48-81, November.
    6. Larrimore, Jeff & Mortenson, Jacob & Splinter, David, 2022. "Earnings shocks and stabilization during COVID-19," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    7. Stephanie Riegg Cellini & Signe-Mary McKernan & Caroline Ratcliffe, 2008. "The dynamics of poverty in the United States: A review of data, methods, and findings," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 577-605.
    8. Robert Moffitt & Sisi Zhang, 2022. "Estimating Trends in Male Earnings Volatility with the Panel Study of Income Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 20-25, December.
    9. Jeff Larrimore & Jacob Mortenson & David Splinter, 2021. "Household Incomes in Tax Data: Using Addresses to Move from Tax-Unit to Household Income Distributions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 56(2), pages 600-631.
    10. Maggie R. Jones & Adam Bee & Amanda Eng & Kendall Houghton & Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej & Sonya R. Porter & Jonathan Rothbaum & John Voorheis, 2024. "Mobility, Opportunity, and Volatility Statistics (MOVS): Infrastructure Files and Public Use Data," Working Papers 24-23, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Michael D. Carr & Robert A. Moffitt & Emily E. Wiemers, 2020. "Reconciling Trends in Volatility: Evidence from the SIPP Survey and Administrative Data," NBER Working Papers 27672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. David Splinter, 2022. "Income Mobility and Inequality: Adult‐Level Measures From the Us Tax Data Since 1979," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(4), pages 906-921, December.
    13. Robert Moffitt & John Abowd & Christopher Bollinger & Michael Carr & Charles Hokayem & Kevin McKinney & Emily Wiemers & Sisi Zhang & James Ziliak, 2022. "Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility: Results from Survey and Administrative Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Adam Bee & Joshua Mitchell & Nikolas Mittag & Jonathan Rothbaum & Carl Sanders & Lawrence Schmidt & Matthew Unrath, 2023. "National Experimental Wellbeing Statistics - Version 1," Working Papers 23-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    15. Jeff Larrimore & Jacob Mortenson & David Splinter, 2015. "Income and Earnings Mobility in U.S. Tax Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-61, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Maureen Berner, 2017. "Multidimensional Measures of Poverty: The Potential Contribution of Non‐Profit Food Pantry Data to Assess Community Economic Condition," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(4), pages 381-401, December.
    17. Yonatan Berman, 2022. "Absolute intragenerational mobility in the United States, 1962–2014," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 587-609, September.
    18. Marchand, J. & Smeeding, T., 2016. "Poverty and Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 905-950, Elsevier.
      • Marchand, Joseph & Smeeding, Timothy, 2016. "Poverty and Aging," Working Papers 2016-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics, revised 20 Nov 2016.
    19. Francesco Devicienti & Valentina Gualtieri & Mariacristina Rossi, 2014. "The Persistence Of Income Poverty And Lifestyle Deprivation: Evidence From Italy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 246-278, July.
    20. Philippe Kerm, 2002. "How much low income turnover is there in Belgium?," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 341-363, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14440. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.