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Investment in productivity and the long-run effect of financial crises on output

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  • de Ridder, Maarten
Abstract
This paper analyzes the channels through which financial crises exert long-term negative effects on output. Recent models suggest that a shortfall in productivity-enhancing invest- ments temporarily slows technological progress, creating a gap between pre-crisis trend and actual GDP. This hypothesis is tested using a linked lender-borrower dataset on 519 U.S. corporations responsible for 54% of industrial research and development. Exploiting quasi-experimental variation in firm-level exposure to the 2008-9 financial crisis, I show that tight credit reduced investments in productivity-enhancement, and has significantly slowed down output growth between 2010 and 2015. A partial-equilibrium aggregation exercise suggests output would be 12% higher today if productivity-enhancing investments had grown at pre-crisis rates.

Suggested Citation

  • de Ridder, Maarten, 2016. "Investment in productivity and the long-run effect of financial crises on output," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86180, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:86180
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    Cited by:

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    4. Dario Bonciani & David Gauthier & Derrick Kanngiesser, 2023. "Slow Recoveries, Endogenous Growth and Macro-prudential Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 698-715, December.
    5. Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli, 2020. "Identifying the Sources of the Slowdown in Growth: Demand vs. Supply," 2020 Papers pma2978, Job Market Papers.
    6. Patricio Toro, 2019. "The Persistent Effect of a Credit Crunch on Output and Productivity: Technical or Allocative Efficiency?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 837, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Mr. JaeBin Ahn & Mr. Romain A Duval & Can Sever, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy, Product Market Competition, and Growth: The Intangible Investment Channel," IMF Working Papers 2020/025, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Dieppe,Alistair Matthew & Kilic Celik,Sinem & Okou,Cedric Iltis Finafa, 2020. "Implications of Major Adverse Events on Productivity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9411, The World Bank.
    9. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," BIS Working Papers 711, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
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    12. Francesco Manaresi & Mr. Nicola Pierri, 2019. "Credit Supply and Productivity Growth," IMF Working Papers 2019/107, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises; endogenous growth; innovation; business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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