Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2020-23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can this time be different? Policy options in times of rising debt

Author

Listed:
  • M.Ayhan Kose
  • Peter S. O. Nagle
  • Franziska L. Ohnsorge
  • Naotaka Sugawara
Abstract
Episodes of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past fifty years. Since 2010, emerging and developing economies have experienced another wave of historically large and rapid debt accumulation. Similar past debt buildups have often ended in widespread financial crises in these economies. This paper examines the factors that are likely to determine the outcome of the most recent debt wave, and considers policy options to help reduce the likelihood that it ends again in widespread crises. It reports two main results. First, the rapid increase in debt has made emerging and developing economies more vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment, notwithstanding historically low global interest rates. Second, policy options are available to lower the likelihood of financial crises, and to help manage the adverse impacts of crises when they do occur. These include sound debt management, strong monetary and fiscal frameworks, and robust bank supervision and regulation. The post crisis debt buildup has coincided with a period of subdued growth as well as the emergence of non-traditional creditors. As a result, policy priorities also need to ensure that debt is spent on productive purposes to improve growth prospects and that all debt related transactions are transparently reported.

Suggested Citation

  • M.Ayhan Kose & Peter S. O. Nagle & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Can this time be different? Policy options in times of rising debt," CAMA Working Papers 2020-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-03/23_2020_kose_nagle_ohnsorge_sugawara.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Horn, Sebastian & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "China's overseas lending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Dizioli, Allan Gloe & van Roye, Björn, 2018. "The resurgence of protectionism: potential implications for global financial stability," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    3. Bahaj, Saleem & Reis, Ricardo, 2018. "Central Bank Swap Lines," Bank of England working papers 741, Bank of England.
    4. N. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen, 2014. "Central Bank Transparency and Independence: Updates and New Measures," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 189-259, March.
    5. Vratislav Izák, 2014. "Private and Public Debt," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 4-21.
    6. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    7. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2019. "Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 30657.
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233424, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    9. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    10. Ha,Jongrim & Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2019. "Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8761, The World Bank.
    11. Noy, Ilan & Nualsri, Aekkanush, 2011. "Fiscal storms: public spending and revenues in the aftermath of natural disasters," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 113-128, February.
    12. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    13. Bordo, Michael D. & Dueker, Michael J. & Wheelock, David C., 2003. "Aggregate price shocks and financial stability: the United Kingdom 1796-1999," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 143-169, April.
    14. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Laeven, Luc, 2017. "The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 203-224.
    15. Jeroen Klomp, 2015. "Sovereign Risk and Natural Disasters in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 1326-1341, November.
    16. M. Ayhan Kose & Hideaki Matsuoka & Ugo Panizza & Dana Vorisek, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1904, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    17. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Stuckler, David, 2010. "Foreign currency debt, financial crises and economic growth: A long-run view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 642-665, June.
    18. Takeo Hoshi, 2011. "Financial Regulation: Lessons from the Recent Financial Crises," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 120-128, March.
    19. Arteta,Carlos & Kose,Ayhan & Stocker,Marc & Taskin,Temel, 2016. "Negative interest rate policies : sources and implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7791, The World Bank.
    20. repec:cuf:journl:y:2015:v:16:i:1:reinhart:rogoff is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Sherry Yu, 2016. "The effect of political factors on sovereign default," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 397-416, July.
    22. Lel, Ugur, 2012. "Currency hedging and corporate governance: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 221-237.
    23. Shaghil Ahmed & Ricardo Correa & Daniel A. Dias & Nils M. Gornemann & Jasper Hoek & Anil K. Jain & Edith X. Liu & Anna Wong, 2019. "Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing," International Finance Discussion Papers 1260, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Virginia Skidmore Rutledge & Michael Moore & Marc C Dobler & Wouter Bossu & Nadège Jassaud & Jianping Zhou, 2012. "From Bail-out to Bail-in; Mandatory Debt Restructuring of Systemic Financial Institutions," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/03, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Christoph Trebesch, 2019. "Resolving sovereign debt crises: the role of political risk," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 421-444.
    26. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    27. Ardanaz, Martín & Cavallo, Eduardo & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Puig, Jorge, 2021. "Growth-friendly fiscal rules? Safeguarding public investment from budget cuts through fiscal rule design," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    28. M. Ayhan Kose & Peter Nagle & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2021. "Global Waves of Debt," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 32809.
    29. Bergman, U. Michael & Hutchison, Michael, 2015. "Economic stabilization in the post-crisis world: Are fiscal rules the answer?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 82-101.
    30. Valentina Bruno & Se-Jik Kim & Hyun Shin, 2018. "Exchange Rates and the Working Capital Channel of Trade Fluctuations," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 531-536, May.
    31. Ricardo Correa & Horacio Sapriza, 2014. "Sovereign Debt Crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Mrs. Nina Budina & Ms. Andrea Schaechter & Miss Anke Weber & Mr. Tidiane Kinda, 2012. "Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis: Toward the "Next-Generation" Rules: A New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 2012/187, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Ms. Elva Bova & Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Mr. Frederik G Toscani & H. Elif Ture, 2016. "The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities: A New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 2016/014, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Virginia Skidmore Rutledge & Michael Moore & Mr. Marc C Dobler & Wouter Bossu & Nadège Jassaud & Ms. Jianping Zhou, 2012. "From Bail-out to Bail-in: Mandatory Debt Restructuring of Systemic Financial Institutions," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2012/003, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Cuadra, Gabriel & Sapriza, Horacio, 2008. "Sovereign default, interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 78-88, September.
    36. Wang, Delu & Wan, Kaidi & Song, Xuefeng, 2018. "Quota allocation of coal overcapacity reduction among provinces in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 170-181.
    37. World Bank & International Monetory Fund, 2001. "Developing Government Bond Markets : A Handbook," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13865.
    38. Laura Jaramillo & Carlos Mulas†Granados & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2017. "Debt spikes, blind spots, and financial stress," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 421-437, October.
    39. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Global Financial Instability: Framework, Events, Issues," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 3-20, Fall.
    40. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    41. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2016. "Do Good Institutions Promote Countercyclical Macroeconomic Policies?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 650-670, October.
    42. Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds," NBER Working Papers 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Dongyeol Lee & Huan Zhang & Chau Nguyen, 2018. "The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries: Adaptation and Preparedness," IMF Working Papers 2018/108, International Monetary Fund.
    44. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 2001. "Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_01-1.
    45. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Bastos, Júlio Cesar Albuquerque & de Oliveira, Ana Jordânia, 2019. "Fiscal transparency, government effectiveness and government spending efficiency: Some international evidence based on panel data approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 211-225.
    46. Feyen,Erik H.B. & Ghosh,Swati R. & Kibuuka,Katie & Farazi,Subika, 2015. "Global liquidity and external bond issuance in emerging markets and developing economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7363, The World Bank.
    47. Henry, Darren, 2010. "Agency costs, ownership structure and corporate governance compliance: A private contracting perspective," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 24-46, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Koh,Wee Chian & Yu,Shu, 2020. "A Decade after the 2009 Global Recession : Macroeconomic and Financial Sector Policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9289, The World Bank.
    2. M. Ayhan Kose & Peter Nagle & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2021. "What has been the impact of COVID-19 on debt? Turning a wave into a tsunami," CAMA Working Papers 2021-99, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ohnsorge, Franziska & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2020. "Emerging and Developing Economies: Ten Years After the Global Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 14405, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ryota Nakatani, 2021. "Fiscal Rules for Natural Disaster- and Climate Change-Prone Small States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, March.
    3. Ohnsorge, Franziska & Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2020. "Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison," CEPR Discussion Papers 14439, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2020. "Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities in Emerging and Developing Economies : Lessons from the Past Decade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9181, The World Bank.
    5. Ryota Nakatani, 2019. "A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands — Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change," IMF Working Papers 2019/186, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    7. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," Discussion Papers 48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Wee Chian Koh & M. Ayhan Kose & Peter S. Nagle & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Debt and Financial Crises," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2001, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    9. Vybhavi Balasundharam & Olivier Basdevant & Dalmacio Benicio & Andrew Ceber & Yujin Kim & Luca Mazzone & Hoda Selim & Yongzheng Yang, 2023. "Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design," IMF Working Papers 2023/063, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    11. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    13. Brändle, Thomas & Elsener, Marc, 2023. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey on recent evidence," Working papers 2023/07, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    14. Koh,Wee Chian & Yu,Shu, 2020. "A Decade after the 2009 Global Recession : Macroeconomic and Financial Sector Policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9289, The World Bank.
    15. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
    16. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2012. "Causes of banking crises: Deregulation, credit booms and asset bubbles, then and now," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 270-294.
    17. Thanh C. Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political environment and financial crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 417-438, January.
    18. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Honda, Jiro & Tapsoba, René & Issifou, Ismael, 2022. "When do we repair the roof? Insights from responses to fiscal crisis early warning signals," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 349-367.
    20. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2022. "From Health Crisis to Financial Distress," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 4-31, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises; currency crises; debt crises; banking crises; public debt; private debt; external debt.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cama Admin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.