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Paths to a Reserve Currency : Internationalization of the Renminbi and Its Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Yiping Huang

    (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI))

  • Daili Wang
  • Gang Fan
Abstract
In this paper we try to address the question of what could help make the renminbi a reserve currency. In recent years, the authorities in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have made efforts to internationalize its currency through a two-track strategy : promotion of the use of the renminbi in the settlement of cross-border trade and investment, and liberalization of the capital account. We find that if we use only the quantitative measures of the economy, the predicted share of the renminbi in global reserves could reach 12%. However, if institutional and market variables are included, the predicted share comes down to around 2%, which is a more realistic prediction. By reviewing experiences of other reserve currencies, we propose a three-factor approach for the PRC authorities to promote the international role of the renminbi : (i) increasing the opportunities of using renminbi in the international community, which requires relatively rapid growth of the PRC economy and continuous liberalization of trade and investment; (ii) improving the ease of using renminbi, which requires depth, sophistication, and liquidity of financial markets; and (iii) strengthening confidence of using renminbi, which requires more transparent monetary policy making, a more independent legal system, and some political reforms. In general, we believe that the renminbi’s international role should increase in the coming years, but it will take a relatively long period before it plays the role of a global reserve currency.

Suggested Citation

  • Yiping Huang & Daili Wang & Gang Fan, 2014. "Paths to a Reserve Currency : Internationalization of the Renminbi and Its Implications," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24165, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:24165
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    Cited by:

    1. Menzie Chinn, 2014. "Global supply chains and macroeconomic relationships in Asia," Chapters, in: Benno Ferrarini & David Hummels (ed.), Asia and Global Production Networks, chapter 8, pages 249-286, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Liu, Tao & Wang, Xiaosong, 2016. "The Road to International Currency: Global Perspective and Chinese Experience," MPRA Paper 72877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ming Zhang & Bin Zhang, 2017. "The Boom and Bust of the RMB's Internationalization: A Perspective from Cross-Border Arbitrage," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 237-253, July.
    4. Mikko Huotari & Sandra Heep, 2016. "Learning geoeconomics: China’s experimental financial and monetary initiatives," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 153-171, June.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Chitu Livia & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "Stability or upheaval? The currency composition of international reserves in the long run," Globalization Institute Working Papers 201, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Zhiwen Zhang, 2016. "The Size Of Foreign Exchange Reserves And Local Currency Internationalization: Cross-Country Evidence," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(05), pages 1-28, December.
    7. Dominik A. Skopiec, 2015. "Rola specjalnych praw ciągnienia we współczesnym międzynarodowym systemie walutowym," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 89-118.
    8. Liu, Tao & Wang, Xiaosong & Woo, Wing Thye, 2019. "The road to currency internationalization: Global perspectives and chinese experience," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 73-101.
    9. Chiappini, Raphaël & Lahet, Delphine, 2020. "Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Zhang, Zhiwen & Makin, Anthony J. & Bai, Qinxian, 2016. "Yen internationalization and Japan's international reserves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 452-466.
    11. Shih-Chang Yu & Wo-Chiang Lee, 2017. "An Analysis on the Correlation Between RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation and East Asian Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(11), pages 1045-1054, November.
    12. Yiping Huang & Peichu Xie & Jiao Wang, 2014. "International Transmission of the People's Bank of China's Balance Sheet Expansion," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(2), pages 276-296, July.
    13. Hyoung-kyu Chey & Yu Wai Vic Li, 2016. "Bringing the Central Bank into the Study of Currency Internationalization: Monetary Policy, Independence, and Internationalization," GRIPS Discussion Papers 15-23, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    liberalization of the capital account; renminbi internationalization; global reserve currency; three-factor approach; transparent monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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