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Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005/08 Revaluation of the Renminbi

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  • Raphael A. Auer
Abstract
This paper quantifies the effect of the government-controlled appreciation of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) vis-à-vis the USD from 2005 to 2008 on the prices charged by US producers. As the RMB during that time was pegged to a basket of currencies, the empirical strategy must account for the fact that the currencies included in the basket may have directly affected US prices. Thus, the pre-2005 period is used to filter out the effects of other exchange rates on import and producer prices. Additionally, utilizing the remainder of the sample, the pure effect of an RMB appreciation on US import prices and, in turn, the effect of RMB-induced US import price fluctuations on US producer prices is established. In a panel spanning the period from 1994 to 2010 and including 417 manufacturing sectors, the main finding emerging from this empirical strategy is that import prices pass into producer prices at an average rate of 0.7. This finding supports the view that the markets for domestic and imported manufactured goods are well integrated. Consequently, even if the exchange rate affects import prices only to a small extent, it may have a substantial impact on inflation, as it exerts a sizeable impact on the competitive environment of domestic producers and the prices that they charge.

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  • Raphael A. Auer, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005/08 Revaluation of the Renminbi," CESifo Working Paper Series 3759, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3759
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    2. Auer, Raphael A. & Degen, Kathrin & Fischer, Andreas M., 2013. "Low-wage import competition, inflationary pressure, and industry dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 141-166.
    3. Fredrick M. Banda & Abdi Khalil Edriss, 2023. "How Did Covid-19 Affect the Structural Relationship between Exchange Rates and Money Supply? Evidence from Malawi," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 199-205, January.
    4. Ha, Jongrim & Marc Stocker, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2020. "Inflation and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    5. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Pass‐through of shocks into different U.S. prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 1300-1315, August.
    6. Mina Kim & Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2013. "International trade price stickiness and exchange rate pass-through in micro data: a case study on U.S.–China trade," Globalization Institute Working Papers 135, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Auer, Raphael A. & Schoenle, Raphael S., 2016. "Market structure and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 60-77.
    8. Wei Sun & Kuhelika De, 2019. "Real Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy, And The U.S. Economy: Evidence From A Favar Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 552-568, January.
    9. Yao Amber Li & Chen Carol Zhao, 2016. "Price Adjustment to Exchange Rates and Forward-looking Exporters: Evidence from USA–China Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 1023-1049, November.
    10. Arintoko, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through, import prices and inflation under structural breaks," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 3(1), pages 55-75, April.
    11. Jihyun Eum, 2019. "Impact of Chinese Renminbi on Korean Exports: Does Quality Matter?," Working Papers 2019-24, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    12. Mark A. Wynne, 2012. "Five Years of Research on Globalization and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned?," Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 2-17.
    13. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Khalil, Makram, 2019. "Global value chain participation and exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Series 2327, European Central Bank.
    14. Han, Jun & Liu, Runjuan & Ural Marchand, Beyza & Zhang, Junsen, 2016. "Market structure, imperfect tariff pass-through, and household welfare in Urban China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 220-232.
    15. Mina Kim & Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang & Jason Wu, 2013. "International Trade Price Stickiness and Exchange Rate and Pass-Through in Micro Data: A Case Study on US-China Trade," Working Papers 202013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    16. Jian Wang, 2014. "Understanding Trade, Exchange Rates and International Capital Flows," Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 10-15.
    17. Mina Kim & Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2013. "International trade price stickiness and exchange rate pass-through in micro data: a case study on U.S.–China trade," Globalization Institute Working Papers 135, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    18. Sérgio Kannebley & Diogo de Prince & Felipe dos Santos Costa, 2023. "Sectoral Exchange Rate Pass-through to Manufacturing Prices: A GVAR Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 919-958, September.
    19. Mark A. Wynne, 2011. "Microeconomic Aspects of the Globalization of Inflation: A Joint Conference with the Swiss National Bank," Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 30-34.
    20. Raphael Schoenle & Raphael Auer, 2012. "Market Structure and Pass-Through," 2012 Meeting Papers 61, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    16. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2012. "Lost in Transit: Product Replacement Bias and Pricing to Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3277-3316, December.
    17. Md Deluair Hossen, 2023. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Data Frequency: Firm-Level Evidence from Bangladesh," Papers 2303.04101, arXiv.org.
    18. Giancarlo Corsetti & Meredith Crowley & Lu Han & Huasheng Song, 2018. "Markets and Markups: A New Empirical Framework and Evidence on Exporters from China," Discussion Papers 1803, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    19. Emi Nakamura & Dawit Zerom, 2010. "Accounting for Incomplete Pass-Through," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(3), pages 1192-1230.
    20. Nagengast, Arne J. & Bursian, Dirk & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Dynamic pricing and exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from transaction-level data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    price complementarities; exchange rate pass through; China; inflation; markups;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

    Statistics

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